共建“一带一路”对服务贸易的增量提质效应研究
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Quantity increasing and quality improving effects of the Belt and Road Initiative on trade in services
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    推动各共建国家的高质量发展是高质量共建“一带一路”的根本要求,研究共建“一带一路”如何促进共建国家服务贸易增量提质具有重要意义。采用2005—2021年137个国家的服务贸易面板数据以及2007—2021年56个国家的服务业GVC面板数据,从贸易结构、贸易竞争力、贸易地位3个维度刻画服务贸易质量,分析发现:共建“一带一路”从规模、结构、竞争力、地位4个维度促进了共建国家服务贸易增量提质,表现为通过促进贸易自由化扩大服务贸易规模、通过完善数字基础设施提升数字服务贸易占比、通过提高ICT技术水平增强数字服务贸易竞争力、通过扩大双向FDI规模提高服务业GVC上游度;共建“一带一路”对不同收入水平和不同经济服务化水平国家服务贸易的影响在不同维度上具有差异化的异质性,总体上(尤其是贸易地位维度)存在先发优势,在贸易竞争力维度则具有普遍的提质作用。因此,应加快推动共建“一带一路”高质量发展,重视数字经济领域的合作与发展,通过分层分类的合作机制充分发挥共建“一带一路”的增量提质效应。

    Abstract:

    Against the backdrop of profound changes in the global economic landscape, trade in services, as an essential component of international trade, plays a critical role in promoting economic growth, upgrading industrial structures, and enhancing international competitiveness. However, China and most Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) participating countries face a relatively small scale of trade in services and an imperative need for structural optimization and competitiveness enhancement. Existing literature on trade in services among BRI countries is relatively sparse and lacks a systematic analytical framework to analyze both the expansion and upgrading of this trade. Thus, the impact of the BRI on the development of trade in services in participating countries requires in-depth investigation. This paper employed panel data on trade in services from 137 countries between 2005 and 2021, as well as panel data on the global value chains (GVCs) in service sector from 56 countries between 2007 and 2021. Using a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) approach, it examines the effects and mechanisms through which the BRI influences the expansion (“quantity increasing”) and upgrading (“quality improving”) of trade in services among participating countries. The findings reveal that the BRI significantly expands the scale of trade in services (quantity) and enhances its quality by optimizing the trade structure, strengthening trade competitiveness, and improving trade position. Regarding the mechanisms, trade liberalization is the key pathway for expanding the scale of trade in services, while improvements in digital infrastructure, advancements in ICT, and the expansion of two-way foreign direct investment (FDI) are primary mechanisms for enhancing the quality of trade in services. The marginal contributions of this study are threefold. First, whereas existing studies have primarily focused on the BRI’s influence on merchandise trade, direct investment, and GVC positions of participating countries, this paper innovatively shifts attention to the expansion and upgrading of trade in services, achieving marginal innovation by refining and deepening the research object. Second, regarding the analytical framework for service trade quality, this study develops a more comprehensive and targeted evaluation system. It systematically characterizes quality across three dimensions: the share of digital services trade (structure), the competitiveness of digital services trade (efficiency), and the GVC upstreamness of the service sector (trade position). This framework provides a new perspective for in-depth analysis of the BRI’s impact on the development of trade in services. Third, this study investigates the mechanisms and heterogeneous effects through which the BRI promotes the expansion and upgrading of trade in services in participating countries. Based on this, it proposes targeted policy recommendations, providing a theoretical foundation for advancing high-quality BRI cooperation and fostering a new pattern of high-level opening-up.

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韩沈超,朱琪.共建“一带一路”对服务贸易的增量提质效应研究[J].西部论坛,2026,36(1):158-172

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-03-29