首发经济如何引领家庭消费结构升级
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How does the first-launch economy drive the upgrading of household consumption structure?
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    摘要:

    首发经济通过催生高端岗位、带动商圈增值提高家庭收入,通过激发技术迭代、培育创业生态驱动创新创业,通过构建消费社群、强化文化认同增强社会联结,进而推动家庭消费结构升级。基于首店经济和体验经济两个维度评估地区首发经济水平,以2010—2022年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)的微观家庭数据匹配省域宏观数据,分析表明:地区首发经济发展显著促进了家庭消费结构升级;首发经济能够通过提高家庭收入、促进地区创新创业、强化家庭社会联结等渠道引领家庭消费结构升级;地区互联网接入率和对外开放水平的提高以及消费环境的改善,会强化首发经济对家庭消费结构升级的引领作用;首发经济对消费结构较高级家庭的消费结构升级效应显著,但对消费结构高级化程度较低家庭的影响不显著,从而加剧了家庭消费结构分化。因此,应设立“首发经济试验区”,以深化开放加快首发经济发展,以数字化加速消费升级,并精准对冲消费结构分化,构建增收引领、创新驱动、文化认同的包容性消费升级长效机制。

    Abstract:

    Promoting the upgrading of household consumption structure is a key link in enhancing people’s sense of gain in livelihood and advancing Chinese-style modernization. Currently, China faces a supply-demand mismatch characterized by overcapacity in low-end sectors and insufficient supply in high-end sectors. The first-launch economy, centered on the inaugural market release of new products and services, has emerged as a pivotal instrument to address this issue and unlock consumption potential. This study aims to empirically investigate the impact and mechanisms of the first-launch economy on household consumption structure, providing theoretical and empirical insights for cultivating new economic drivers and optimizing consumption supply policies within the new development paradigm. Based on micro-level data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) spanning 2010 to 2022, this study employs a fixed-effects model for analysis. The dependent variable, consumption structure, is measured by the ratio of enjoyment-oriented consumption to subsistence-oriented consumption. The core explanatory variable, the level of first-launch economy development, is constructed via principal component analysis, with the first-store economy measured by the annual number of newly opened first stores, and the experience economy measured by the annual count of exhibitions and gatherings registered with local culture and tourism authorities. Both micro-level variables (e.g., household income, household size, and head of household characteristics) and macro-level variables (e.g., regional industrial structure) are controlled for. To ensure the reliability of conclusions, robustness tests are conducted, including adding lag terms to mitigate consumption habit bias, constructing Shift-Share instrumental variables to address endogeneity from bidirectional causality, replacing variable measurement methods, excluding samples from municipalities directly under the Central Government and the COVID-19 period, and adopting machine learning estimation. Additionally, the study further examines underlying mechanisms and moderating effects. The empirical results reveal four main findings. First, the first-launch economy significantly drives the upgrading of household consumption structure. The coefficient of the core explanatory variable in the benchmark regression is significantly positive, and the conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests. Second, the mechanism operates through three channels: the first-launch economy increases household income by generating high-end jobs and boosting business district value appreciation; drives innovation and entrepreneurship by stimulating technological iteration and fostering an entrepreneurial ecosystem; and enhances social connections by building consumption communities and strengthening cultural identity—ultimately optimizing the consumption structure. Third, the moderating effect analysis indicates that internet access, high-quality consumption environments, and the level of opening-up can significantly amplify the driving role of the first-launch economy. Fourthly, further analysis reveals that the impact of the first-launch economy is heterogeneous. It exhibits a statistically significant upgrading effect only on households with a consumption structure above the median level, while its effect on those below the median is insignificant. Consequently, this differential impact objectively widens the existing gap in consumption structure. The innovations and values of this study are as follows. First, it adopts an innovative research perspective by being the first to empirically explore the relationship between the first-launch economy and consumption structure at the household micro-level, addressing the macro-oriented bias of existing studies and expanding the scope of income distribution theory. Second, it conducts an in-depth exploration of mechanisms, identifying three paths of action (income, innovation, and social connections) and three moderating factors, thereby enriching the empirical research system on the first-launch economy. Third, it offers clear policy implications. The findings provide micro-level evidence for the construction of international consumption center cities and inclusive consumption growth. It also puts forward suggestions such as strengthening the digital ecosystem development of the first-launch economy, building a sound demand-supply cycle, and improving consumption infrastructure in underdeveloped regions. These suggestions hold significant practical value for smoothing domestic circulation and promoting high-quality consumption development.

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冯典状,许超亚,张卫国.首发经济如何引领家庭消费结构升级[J].西部论坛,2026,36(1):85-100

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-03-29