气候政策不确定性如何影响工业企业金融化?
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How does climate policy uncertainty affect the financialization of industrial enterprises?
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    摘要:

    气候变化的多样性和复杂性使气候政策的制定与实施具有较强的不确定性,工业企业可能会通过金融化来对冲这种政策风险。采用沪深A股工业企业2012—2023年的数据分析发现:气候政策不确定性越高,工业企业金融化水平越高,表明气候政策不确定性提高加剧了工业企业金融化;气候政策不确定性提高能够通过强化风险规避、挤出实体投资、增加代理成本3条路径驱动工业企业金融化,工业企业风险承担能力增强则会弱化气候政策不确定性提高的金融化加剧效应;气候政策不确定性提高主要加剧了ESG评分较低、非国有、管理层女性占比较低、管理者气候关注度较高、行业竞争程度较高的工业企业金融化;气候政策不确定性提高会促使工业企业出于预防储备动机和投机套利动机提升金融化水平,其中预防储备动机占据主导地位。因此,政府应提升气候政策的透明度和稳定性,工业企业应强化公司治理,改善管理层人员结构与认知模式,增强风险承担能力,有效抑制过度金融化行为。

    Abstract:

    China’s current climate policies are characterized by regional disparities, phased targets, and diverse implementation tools, which inevitably increase uncertainty in the formulation and execution of these policies. Such uncertainty not only affects firms’ expected returns and investment decisions but may also induce structural distortions in resource allocation, thereby altering firms’ capital operation logic and financial behavior. However, existing literature has primarily focused on the impact of climate policy uncertainty on financial risks, corporate investment, and innovation, with relatively insufficient attention paid to its effect on corporate financialization, especially the phenomenon of “shifting from the real to the virtual economy” within the industrial sector. Using a sample of China’s A?share listed industrial companies from 2012 to 2023, this study measures climate policy fluctuation by employing the climate policy uncertainty index constructed by Ma et al. (2023) and systematically investigates the impact of climate policy uncertainty on the financialization of industrial enterprises through a multiple fixed?effects model. The findings reveal that higher climate policy uncertainty leads to a stronger tendency toward financialization in industrial enterprises. This effect is particularly pronounced in enterprises with a lower proportion of female executives, greater managerial concern about climate issues, poor ESG performance, more intense industry competition, and in non-state-owned enterprises. Climate policy uncertainty promotes financialization in industrial enterprises through several mechanisms: heightened risk aversion, crowding-out effects on the real economy, and increased agency costs. However, a firm’s risk-bearing capacity can mitigate the influence of climate policy uncertainty on financialization. Further analysis reveals that under climate policy uncertainty, firms’ holdings of financial assets result from both precautionary and speculative motives, with the precautionary motive outweighing the speculative one. Compared with existing studies, this paper makes three main contributions: First, it examines the intrinsic link between climate governance and corporate financialization from the novel perspective of climate policy uncertainty, thereby extending the research frontier on the relationship between macro?policy uncertainty and micro?firm behavior. Second, it systematically unveils the underlying mechanisms through which climate policy uncertainty affects corporate financialization from three dimensions—risk aversion, real?economy crowding?out, and agency cost escalation. This provides new insights into the drivers of financialization decisions in industrial firms under such uncertainty. Third, it conducts an in?depth analysis of the heterogeneous effects of climate policy uncertainty, further revealing its differential impacts on the financialization of industrial firms, thereby providing new pathways to prevent industrial enterprises from “shifting from the real to the virtual economy”. This research reveals the underlying logic of industrial firms’ financialization under climate policy uncertainty. The findings provide empirical support and a theoretical basis for the government to optimize the design and implementation of climate policies, prevent capital from “shifting from the real to the virtual economy”, and promote the sustainable and healthy development of enterprises.

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兰秀娟,杨康静,裴璇.气候政策不确定性如何影响工业企业金融化?[J].西部论坛,2026,36(1):70-84

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-03-29