成渝地区双城经济圈与RCEP成员国贸易关系研究
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The Trade Relationship Between Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle and RCEP Member Countries
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    摘要:

    采用联合国贸易和发展组织以及中国海关总署提供的6位数编码商品数据,测算2022年成渝地区双城经济圈与RCEP成员国之间货物贸易的竞争指数和互补指数,并运用社会网络分析法分析贸易关系的网络特征,研究发现:2015年以来,成渝地区双城经济圈对RCEP成员国的货物进出口增长显著;成渝地区双城经济圈与RCEP成员国之间的贸易互补性大于竞争性,贸易发展潜力巨大;成渝地区双城经济圈与越南、柬埔寨、泰国3国的贸易竞争关系显著,与澳大利亚、新加坡、韩国、马来西亚、泰国、日本6国的贸易互补关系显著;成渝地区双城经济圈面临的贸易竞争环境总体较友好,贸易互补环境总体一般;重庆与RCEP成员国之间的贸易竞争指数比四川低,而贸易互补指数比四川高;重庆与四川之间的贸易竞争指数较高,表明两地的贸易结构相似度较高。因此,成渝地区双城经济圈应将RCEP成员国作为重要的开放市场,积极拓展RCEP成员国的市场空间,重庆与四川则应协同优化贸易结构。

    Abstract:

    Against the backdrop of significant challenges in European and American markets, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) presents a favorable opportunity for the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle to chart a course for reform and openness. However, the existing literature focuses on China’s trade efficiency and potential with RCEP member countries at the state level, lacking a systematic study of the trade complementarity between the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle and RCEP member countries. Particularly, there is a dearth of comprehensive and holistic analysis considering multi-agent network relationships. This paper, by employing the social network analysis method, calculates the goods trade competition and complementarity indexes between Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle and RCEP countries based on the six-digit commodity data provided by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and China Customs. Empirical findings reveal that between the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle and RCEP countries, the trade complementarity considerably outweighs trade competition, indicating substantial trade potential. Specifically, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Thailand exhibit significant trade competition with the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle. Australia, Singapore, South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, and Japan exhibit significant trade complementarity with the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle. Further analysis shows that the competitive landscape faced by the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle is marked by cordial relations, while the trade complementarity environment is barely favorable. Notably, Chongqing and Sichuan have a high similarity in their commodity trade structures, with a trade competition index of 0.5954. Compared with previous literature, this study expands on two key dimensions. Firstly, it calculates the competitive and complementary indices of goods trade between the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle and RCEP member countries, comprehensively revealing the trade dynamics between them. Secondly, by employing social network analysis, this study explores the trade network relationships between the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle and RCEP member countries, shedding light on the former’s position, role, and critical connections within the network. This research partially explains the trade complementarity between the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle and RCEP member countries. It provides differentiated policy support for optimizing the structure of goods trade between Chongqing and Sichuan, contributing to guiding the establishment of distinct open industrial systems, and fully leveraging the advantages of the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle as a key node in the Belt and Road Initiative and the Yangtze River Economic Belt.

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覃乔亦,李敬.成渝地区双城经济圈与RCEP成员国贸易关系研究[J].西部论坛,2025,(2):114-124

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-04-24