满足内需的循环格局及其优化研究——兼析省内循环的形成与省际循环网络
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Study on the Circulation Pattern to Meet Domestic Demand and Its Optimization:Also an Analysis of the Formation of Circulation within the Province and the Network of Inter-provincial Circulation
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    摘要:

    利用2007、2012、2015、2017年中国区域间投入产出表,通过国际循环、省际循环、省内循环的分解,刻画为满足国内最终产品需求而在生产环节上形成的省域及产业循环格局:在需求侧,省域和产业的三种循环中均是省内循环占主体地位,并表现出利用国内分工(特别是省际分工)替代国际分工的趋势;相对而言,先进省域(东部沿海区域)的生产更多地使用来自国外的增加值,因而更易受到国际供应变化的影响;同时,先进产业(高技术制造业)以及矿产能源领域存在更大的被“卡脖子”和断供的安全隐患。在供给侧,各省域的省内循环占比均较高,形成了由本省需求驱动本地生产资源整合的省内循环模式;政府消费需求驱动省内循环形成的偏向性最高,电热燃水生产供应及建筑业、服务业和农林牧渔业驱动省内循环形成的偏向性较高,而采矿业和制造业驱动省际循环形成的偏向性较高;在省际循环网络中,北京、上海、江苏、浙江、广东、河南、河北和安徽处于核心位置。面对“卡脖子”和断供难题,应通过加强省际循环来积极应对,要加快建设全国统一大市场和更高水平国内大循环。

    Abstract:

    To some extent, the“bottleneck” problem faced by China reflects that globalization has not only provided resources exchange channels for countries, but also “endowed” countries in a dominant position with the ability to influence the production and development of other countries by regulating the outflow of resources. In the globalization of crises and opportunities, building a relatively safe and efficient domestic supply system not only needs to dredge the blockages in production links, but also needs to give play to the advantages of major countries, strengthen regional linkage, and improve the resilience and stability of domestic supply chains. Based on this, this paper uses the inter-regional input-output table of China in 2007, 2012, 2015, and 2017 to construct the decomposition framework of international, inter-provincial, and intra-provincial self-circulation at the provincial and industrial levels, and analyzes the domestic supply and demand pattern formed in the production link from the perspective of added value to meet the domestic demand for final products. The key points vulnerable to the influence of foreign supply are identified from the demand pattern, and the feasible path of cohesion of regional development forces is explored from the supply pattern. The results show that: first, on the demand side, China’s coastal region is more inclined to use the added value from abroad in production, while the inland region is more dependent on resource exchange and division of labor cooperation between provinces. Therefore, the production of the coastal region is more susceptible to the influence of external supply; second, in high-tech manufacturing and mineral and energy sectors, China has the security risk of being “stuck” and cut off, and these painful problems will hinder the smooth flow of China’s economic cycle; third, on the supply side, Chinese provinces show a high level of self-circulation and inter-provincial segmentation, forming a provincial self-circulation model driven by local demand to integrate local production resources, reflecting the production layout towards the demand market, and the government’s protection of local areas will also boost the formation of provincial self-circulation. In addition, different industries also have heterogeneous effects on the formation of provincial self-circulation; fourthly, in China’s inter-provincial circulation network, the supply pattern of inter-provincial complementary advantage and mutual benefit has been formed initially. Compared with previous studies, this paper constructs the decomposition framework of the economic cycle in the production link, and further decomposes the domestic big cycle into inter-provincial cycle and self-cycle within the province, which is a more in-depth and comprehensive discussion on the issue of the economic cycle. Based on the research of this paper, to unblock the economic cycle in the production link, it is necessary not only to solve the “bottleneck” problem by insisting on independent innovation, but also to be alert to the supply risk of minerals and energy. In addition, to gather regional development synergy, it is also necessary for each province to continuously shape its advantages to expand the space for inter-provincial cooperation and empower the construction of a higher level of domestic circulation, while curbing the government’s tendency of local protection.

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李静,王蕾.满足内需的循环格局及其优化研究——兼析省内循环的形成与省际循环网络[J].西部论坛,2023,33(2):60-78

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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-06-17