Abstract:Making full use of reverse technology spillover from foreign direct investment (OFDI) to promote high-quality development of domestic economy is an important path to realize the mutual promotion of domestic and international double cycles. The spillover effect of OFDI reverse technology is reflected in many fields and layers. The improvement of green total factor productivity (GTFP) in manufacturing is the key to promote the high-quality development of regional economy. However, the existing literature lacks in-depth research on the relationship between OFDI reverse technology spillover and GTFP in manufacturing. This paper argues that OFDI can promote its GTFP improvement by using the innovation resources of the host country to form reverse technology spillover, and further promote the GTFP improvement of other enterprises through the local technology spillover effect and economic correlation, and finally produce the GTFP enhancement effect of regional manufacturing industry. This effect is influenced by factors such as factor endowment of host country, technology absorption capacity of home country, technological gap and technological difference between home country and host country. With 30 provinces as sample regions and 45 countries along the Belt and Road as sample host countries, the analysis of panel data from 2008 to 2020 shows that the increase of OFDI reverse technology spillover can significantly promote the improvement of GTFP (including green technology progress and green technology efficiency) in regional manufacturing industry. The reverse technology spillover effect of OFDI in technology-oriented host countries with technological advantages is stronger than that in resource-oriented host countries with natural resources advantages. However, reverse technology spillover of OFDI in market-oriented host countries with market advantages is negatively correlated with GTFP of regional manufacturing industry. The positive impact of OFDI reverse technology spillover on GTFP of regional manufacturing industries in the eastern, central and western regions shows an increasing trend, indicating that the narrowing of technology gap will weaken the reverse technology spillover effect of OFDI. OFDI reverse technology spillover from high-tech industries has a significant positive effect on GTFP of regional manufacturing industry, while OFDI reverse technology spillover from traditional industries has no significant effect on GTFP of regional manufacturing industry, indicating that the expansion of technological differences will enhance the reverse technology spillover effect of OFDI. R&d intensity and innovation capability have a positive moderating effect on the increase of OFDI reverse technology spillover and the growth of GTFP in manufacturing industry, indicating that the improvement of local R&D investment and innovation capability will enhance the technology absorption capacity, and thus strengthen the reverse technology spillover effect of OFDI. Compared with previous literature, this paper analyzes the impact of OFDI reverse technology spillovers on GTFP of regional manufacturing industries, and discusses the mechanism and heterogeneity of OFDI reverse technology spillovers from the perspectives of technology gap, technology difference and technology absorption capacity. The research in this paper will help to deeply understand the internal mechanism of OFDI reverse technology spillovers playing a positive role, and then help to adopt differentiated international investment strategies, so as to better utilize OFDI reverse technology spillovers to promote high-quality development.