宽松货币政策更能促进企业实体投资还是金融资产投资?
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Does Loose Monetary Policy Better Promote Entity Investment or Financial Asset Investment?
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    摘要:

    实体经济是经济高质量发展的着力点,能否推动实体经济健康繁荣是衡量货币政策有效性的关键点。现有研究发现,宽松货币政策不仅促进了企业实体投资,也促进了企业金融资产投资,但究竟更能促进哪类投资还缺乏深入研究和经验证据,不利于全面客观地评价货币政策的有效性。本文认为:货币政策宽松带来的资金供给增长有利于企业实体投资和金融资产投资的增加,货币政策趋于宽松是在整体经济持续低迷情况下常用的逆周期调节手段,此时实物资产价格往往处于低估状态,而金融资产价格波动往往较大,因而,总体上宽松货币政策更能促进企业的实体投资。但是,由于货币政策本身对企业投资偏好的影响不大,投资不足的企业往往对实体投资保持谨慎,可能更多地利用资金增量进行金融资产配置,而偏好实体投资的过度投资企业则可能继续增加实体投资,进而加剧企业的非效率投资行为。以2008年—2020年沪深两市A股上市公司为样本,采用联立方程模型的分析发现,货币政策宽松程度提高会产生如下企业投资效应:(1)总体上看,同时促进企业的两类投资且对实体投资的促进作用更大;(2)促进投资不足企业的两类投资且对金融资产投资的促进作用更大,对过度投资企业的实体投资和金融资产投资分别具有促进和抑制作用;(3)促进国有企业的实体投资,促进非国有企业的两类投资且对金融资产投资的促进更为显著,对国有企业实体投资的促进作用比对非国有企业实体投资的促进作用更大;(4)促进东部地区企业的两类投资且对金融资产投资的促进作用更为显著,促进中西部地区企业的实体投资,对中西部地区企业实体投资的促进作用比对东部地区企业实体投资的促进作用更大。相比现有文献,本文主要进行了如下拓展和深化:一是将企业的实体投资和金融资产投资纳入同一分析框架,以拓展货币政策的企业投资效应研究以及企业投资行为研究;二是采用联立方程模型优化关于企业投资行为影响因素的实证方法,并为货币政策会促使企业“脱实向虚”还是“脱虚向实”提供了经验证据;三是针对不同企业的异质性分析有助于精准有力地提高货币政策的有效性。虽然从总体上看宽松货币政策有助于企业“脱虚向实”,但也可能加剧企业的非效率投资行为,不利于经济结构的改善和效率的提升。因此,宽松货币政策要慎用。当前,我国依然应实施稳健的货币政策,并注重对不同微观经济主体进行精准有力的差异化调节,同时要加强预期管理和与其他宏观调控政策的配合,推动企业有效率地“脱虚向实”。

    Abstract:

    The real economy is the focus of high-quality economic development. Whether monetary policy can promote the sound prosperity of the real economy is a key point to measure the effectiveness of the monetary policy. Existing studies have found that loose monetary policy not only promotes corporate entity investment, but also promotes corporate financial asset investment. However, there is a lack of in-depth research and empirical evidence on what types of investments are better promoted. It is not conducive to a comprehensive and objective evaluation of the effectiveness of monetary policy. This paper argues that the growth of capital supply brought by the easing of monetary policy is conducive to the increase of enterprise entity investment and financial asset investment. The easing of monetary policy is a common countercyclical adjustment tool when the overall economy remains sluggish. At this time, real asset prices tend to be undervalued, while financial asset prices tend to fluctuate greatly. Therefore, loose monetary policy in general can promote enterprises’ entity investment. However, because the monetary policy itself has little influence on the investment preference of enterprises, enterprises with insufficient investment tend to be cautious about entity investment and may make more use of capital increment for financial asset allocation. Over-invested firms that prefer real investment, on the other hand, may continue to increase their entity investment, which in turn exacerbates their inefficient investment behavior. Taking A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2008 to 2020 as samples, the analysis of the simultaneous equation model shows that the increase of monetary policy easing will produce the following corporate investment effects. (1) On the whole, it promotes both types of investment of enterprises and has a greater promotion effect on entity investment. (2) It promotes the two types of investment of under-invested enterprises and plays a greater role in promoting financial asset investment. It can promote and inhibit the entity investment and financial asset investment of over-invested enterprises respectively. (3) It promotes the entity investment of state-owned enterprises. The promotion of investment in financial assets by non-state-owned enterprises is more significant, and the promotion of investment in state-owned enterprises is more significant than that of investment in non-state-owned enterprises. (4) It promotes the two types of investment of enterprises in the eastern region and the promotion effect on financial asset investment is more significant. It promotes entity investment by enterprises in the central and western regions. The promotion effect on enterprise entity investment in central and western regions is greater than that in eastern regions.Compared with existing literature, this paper mainly expands and deepens this study from the following aspects. Firstly, the entity investment and financial asset investment of enterprises are included in the same analytical framework to expand the research on the investment effect of monetary policy and the investment behavior of enterprises. Secondly, the simultaneous equation model is used to optimize the empirical method of the factors affecting the investment behavior of enterprises, and the empirical evidence is provided for whether the monetary policy will prompt enterprises to “turn from real to virtual” or “turn from virtual to real”. Thirdly, heterogeneity analysis of different enterprises helps to accurately and effectively improve the effectiveness of the monetary policy. On the whole, loose monetary policy is helpful for enterprises to “shift from virtual to real”. It may also aggravate the inefficient investment behavior of enterprises, which is not conducive to the improvement of economic structure and efficiency. Therefore, loose monetary policy should be used with caution. At present, China should still implement a prudent monetary policy and pay attention to the precise and powerful differentiation adjustment of different micro-economic entities. At the same time, expectations management and coordination with other macro-control policies should be strengthened to promote enterprises to efficiently “move from virtual to real”.

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袁卫秋,周萌.宽松货币政策更能促进企业实体投资还是金融资产投资?[J].西部论坛,2022,32(6):82-96

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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-03-05