Abstract:As a region of a country, the provincial economic cycle has three layers of geographic boundaries: intra-provincial, national, and global. The decomposition of the domestic cycle and the international cycle cannot well reflect its economic relationship with other domestic provinces. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out a more detailed structural decomposition of the provincial economic cycle, but the existing literature lacks research on this. Based on domestic circulation and international circulation, this paper introduces the dual-circulation of a single province and multi-province according to whether other provinces participate in the cycle, and decomposes the structure of the dual four-cycle of the provincial economy: the domestic cycle in which a single province participates is the intra-provincial cycle, the domestic cycle involving multiple provinces is the inter-provincial cycle, the international cycle involving a single province is the simple international cycle, and the international cycle involving multiple provinces is the complex international cycle. Based on this, by constructing the MRIO-IRIOT table, the output of 4 economic cycles in 16 industries in 30 sample provinces in 2012, 2015, and 2017 was calculated, and the intensity (proportion of output) of each economic cycle was used to describe the cycle structure. And the cycling intensities of different industries in the provincial areas were weighted and averaged by output value to obtain the cycling intensity of each economy in each province. The results showed that there were significant differences in the circular structure of the provincial economies during the sample period, with different trends of evolution. On the whole, the cycling intensities from high to low were the intra-provincial cycle, inter-provincial cycle, complex international cycle, and simple international cycle, showing a development pattern of “the domestic cycle as the dominant, the international cycle as the secondary”, and a development trend of “the domestic cycle strengthening, the international cycle weakening”. The impact of the change in the intensity of the four economic cycles at the industry level on the growth of total industry output was further examined, and the analysis found that after 2012, the contributions of the four economic cycles to economic growth in descending order were inter-provincial cycle, complex international cycle, intra-provincial cycle, and simple international cycle, indicating that the cycle structure evolves in the direction of “domestic grand cycle as the main body” and had an optimization trend of “strengthened multi-provincial cycle, weakened single provincial cycle, strengthened inter-provincial cycle, and weakened simple international cycle”; the inter-provincial cycle and the complex international cycle reinforced each other significantly, so strengthening the inter-regional economic relations is one of the effective ways to promote the “mutual promotion between domestic cycle and international cycle”. Compared with the existing literature, this paper has extended and deepened the quantitative analysis of the double-cycle structure by decomposing the dual four-cycle of the provincial economy. Studying the impact of the change of the cycle structure on output growth from a dynamic perspective helps to gain a deeper understanding of the role of different cycles in economic development. The examination of the interaction between domestic and international cycles is helpful for exploring the effective path of mutual promotion of domestic and international cycles. This study shows that the development pattern of the “domestic cycle as the main body” has been basically formed, but there is a need to further strengthen the inter-provincial cycle. The realization of “dual domestic and international cycles promoting each other” also requires strengthening inter-regional economic exchanges and cooperation. Therefore, it is necessary to accelerate the construction of a unified national market, promote the upgrading of the international circulation structure by improving the quality of domestic circulation through regional linkage, and then build a new development pattern of higher.