引致还是挤出:中国OFDI对他国OFDI的影响——以OECD国家对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资为例
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Inducing or Extruding: The Impact of China's OFDI on Other Countries' OFDI: Taking OECD Countries' Direct Investment in Countries Along the “Belt and Road” as an Example
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    摘要:

    在开放一体的市场经济体系中,一国的对外直接投资(OFDI)必然会对他国的OFDI产生影响。在共建“一带一路”过程中,中国在沿线国家和地区OFDI对其他国家OFDI产生了怎样的影响,现有文献对此研究不多,且主要是分析作用效果及其异质性,影响机制和路径有待进一步的深入探讨。本文认为,中国在“一带一路”沿线国家和地区OFDI有效促进了东道国的经济增长,东道国经济增长产生的规模经济效应、市场扩张效应、技术溢出效应、产业集聚效应等会提高其对外资的需求和吸引力,进而引致其他国家OFDI增长。在此过程中,促进东道国的基础设施完善、产业结构升级以及金融发展是中国OFDI引致其他国家OFDI的重要路径。同时,由于东道国异质性影响到投资国企业OFDI的区位选择,中国OFDI对其他国家OFDI的引致效应在不同的东道国具有差异化表现。采用2008—2020年中国、64个“一带一路”沿线国家和36个OECD国家的非平衡面板数据,运用工具变量法分析发现:(1)中国在“一带一路”沿线国家OFDI不但不会挤出OECD国家的OFDI,还会引致OECD国家的OFDI;(2)中国的OFDI可以通过促进东道国的基础设施完善和产业结构升级引致OECD国家的OFDI,但在样本期间未能通过促进样本东道国的金融发展引致OECD国家的OFDI;(3)中国和样本OECD国家的企业具有较强的资源寻求和市场寻求动机,都倾向于选择在自然资源丰富、收入水平高的国家进行OFDI,因而中国OFDI对OECD国家OFDI的引致效应在自然资源较丰富、收入水平较高的样本东道国中更为显著;(4)中国企业倾向于投资政府效率较低的国家,而OECD国家企业倾向于投资政府效率较高的国家,因而东道国政府效率的不同未导致中国OFDI对OECD国家OFDI引致效应的显著差异。本文探讨了中国在“一带一路”沿线国家OFDI引致OECD国家OFDI的基础设施、产业结构和金融发展路径,并基于企业OFDI的动机分析了东道国异质性,丰富和拓展了中国OFDI与他国OFDI之间关系的研究。本文研究表明,中国OFDI不仅有利于自身的结构调整和产能释放,也会促进东道国的经济发展,并引致其他国家的OFDI,进而实现多方共赢。因此,中国应持续推动“一带一路”建设走深走实,加大直接投资力度,尤其应扩大金融类直接投资规模,积极支持重大基础设施建设和发展相对滞后国家的经济发展,进而吸引更多国家参与到共建“一带一路”中来。

    Abstract:

    In an open and integrated market economy, one country's OFDI is bound to have an impact on the OFDI of other countries. In the process of the Belt and Road Initiative, there are few studies on the influence of China's OFDI in the countries and regions along the Belt and Road on the OFDI of other countries. The studies mainly focus on the analysis of effects and heterogeneity, and the mechanism and path of influence need to be further explored in depth. This paper argues that China's OFDI in countries and regions along the “Belt and Road” has effectively promoted the economic growth of host countries. The scale economy effect, market expansion effect, technology spillover effect, and industrial agglomeration effect generated by the economic growth of the host country will increase its demand and attraction for foreign investment, which will lead to the OFDI growth of other countries. In this process, promoting the host country's infrastructure improvement, industrial structure upgrading, and financial development is an important path for China's OFDI to lead to the OFDI of other countries. At the same time, due to the heterogeneity of host countries that affects the location choice of OFDI in investing countries, the inducing effect of China's OFDI on OFDI in other countries is differently manifested in different host countries. The unbalanced panel data of China, 64 Belt and Road countries, and 36 OECD countries from 2008 to 2020 were used for analysis by the instrumental variable method. It is found that: (1) China's OFDI of countries along the Belt and Road will not crowd out the OFDI of OECD countries, but also lead to the OFDI of OECD countries; (2) China's OFDI can lead to the OFDI of OECD countries by promoting the infrastructure improvement and industrial structure upgrading of host countries. However, during the sample period, OFDI of OECD countries could not be induced by promoting the financial development of sample host countries; (3) enterprises in China and sample OECD countries have a strong motivation to seek resources and market, and they tend to choose countries with rich natural resources and high income level to conduct OFDI. Therefore, the inducing effect of China's OFDI on OECD countries' OFDI is more significant in the sample host countries with richer natural resources and higher income level; (4) Chinese enterprises tend to invest in countries with low government efficiency, while enterprises in OECD countries tend to invest in countries with high government efficiency. This paper discusses the path of infrastructure, industrial structure, and financial development of OFDI of OECD countries from China's OFDI of countries along the “Belt and Road”. The heterogeneity of host countries is analyzed based on the motivation of OFDI of enterprises, and the research on the relationship between China's OFDI and other countries' OFDI is enriched and expanded. This study shows that China's OFDI is not only beneficial to its structural adjustment and production capacity release, but also promotes the economic development of host countries and leads to the OFDI of other countries, thus achieving a win-win situation for all parties. Therefore, China should continue to promote the construction of the “Belt and Road” in a deeper and more practical way, increase direct investment, especially expand the scale of financial direct investment, actively support major infrastructure construction and economic development of countries that are relatively lagging behind in development, and then attract more countries to participate in the construction of the Belt and Road.

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崔远淼,王杰.引致还是挤出:中国OFDI对他国OFDI的影响——以OECD国家对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资为例[J].西部论坛,2022,32(5):63-82

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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-12-16