绿色金融赋能碳中和的传导机制与空间效应
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Transmission Mechanism and Spatial Effects of Green Finance Enabling Carbon Neutrality
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    摘要:

    “双碳”目标为绿色发展提出了更高要求,绿色金融则在推动经济绿色转型、实现“双碳”目标的过程中发挥着重大作用。然而,现有实证研究主要针对绿色金融对碳达峰的影响(碳减排效应),鲜见从碳减排和碳移除两个维度探究绿色金融赋能碳中和的经验分析,且缺乏对相应空间效应的检验。本文认为,绿色金融会引导社会资金流向有利于绿色发展的生产活动,促使更多资源被配置在污染治理和环境保护领域中,这将减少单位产出的碳排放量并增强地区碳移除能力,进而推动实现碳中和。具体来讲,绿色金融的发展,有利于经济活动中节能减排投入的增加和能源消费结构的清洁化,进而从碳减排维度赋能碳中和;有利于通过绿色农业和林业开发提升陆域碳汇能力,进而从碳移除维度赋能碳中和;有利于促进绿色技术创新和应用、推动产业结构及外资结构低碳化和生态化转变,进而从碳减排和碳移除两个维度赋能碳中和。同时,在绿色金融发展、碳排放和碳移除的空间溢出作用下,绿色金融赋能碳中和具有空间溢出效应。运用动态SDM模型对2010—2020年中国30个样本地区的分析发现:绿色金融发展水平和碳赤字水平均具有显著的空间自相关性;地区绿色金融发展水平的提高,有利于本地碳减排和碳移除进而降低本地的碳赤字水平,同时也有利于降低相邻地区的碳排放和碳赤字水平;总体上看,绿色金融赋能碳中和的直接效应大于间接效应,短期效应大于长期效应;此外,节能环保支出增加、能源消费结构清洁化以及产业结构升级等可以抑制碳排放量的增加,森林覆盖率提高可以促进碳移除能力提升,绿色技术创新和应用则可以同时促进碳减排和碳移除。相比现有文献,本文主要进行了如下拓展和深化:一是在理论上较为系统地探讨了绿色金融赋能碳中和的传导机制,二是将碳赤字、碳减排和碳移除纳入同一分析框架检验了绿色金融发展对碳中和的促进作用及其空间溢出效应。本文研究表明,绿色金融发展不仅会助力本地碳中和的实现,还会对相邻地区产生积极的空间溢出效应。应进一步挖掘和提升绿色金融发展的积极效应,强化其对资金流向的引导作用,并加强绿色监管,着力解决绿色技术创新投入不足、绿色资源错配等问题,尤其应重视和避免“漂绿”现象带来的负面影响。

    Abstract:

    The “dual-carbon” goal puts forward higher requirements for green development, and green finance plays an important role in promoting green economic transformation and realizing the “dual-carbon” goal. However, existing empirical studies mainly focus on the impact of green finance on carbon peaking (carbon emission reduction effect). There are few empirical analyses on green finance enabling carbon neutrality from the dimensions of carbon reduction and carbon removal, and there is a lack of testing of the corresponding spatial effects. This paper believes that green finance will direct social capital to productive activities that are conducive to green development and lead to more resources being allocated to pollution control and environmental protection. This will reduce the amount of carbon emitted per unit of output and enhance regional carbon removal capacity, thereby contributing to carbon neutrality. To be specific, the development of green finance is conducive to the increase of energy saving and emission reduction input in economic activities and the clean energy consumption structure, so as to enable carbon neutrality from the dimension of carbon emission reduction. It is beneficial to improve the terrestrial carbon sink capacity through green agriculture and forestry development, and thus to enable carbon neutrality from the carbon removal dimension. It is conducive to promoting the innovation and application of green technology, promoting the low-carbon and ecological transformation of industrial structure and foreign investment structure, and thus enabling carbon neutrality from the dimensions of carbon reduction and carbon removal. Meanwhile, under the spatial spillover effect of green finance development, carbon emission and carbon removal, green finance enabling carbon neutrality have a spatial spillover effect. The dynamic SDM model was used to analyze 30 sample regions in China from 2010 to 2020, and it was found that both the level of green financial development and the level of carbon deficit have significant spatial autocorrelation; the improvement of regional green finance development level is conducive to local carbon emission reduction and carbon removal, thus reducing the local carbon deficit level, as well as the carbon emission and carbon deficit level of neighboring regions; in general, the direct effect of green finance on carbon neutrality is greater than the indirect effect, and the short-term effect is greater than the long-term effect; in addition, increased expenditure on energy conservation and environmental protection, clean energy consumption structure, and industrial structure upgrading can inhibit the increase of carbon emissions, the improvement of forest coverage can promote the increase of carbon removal, and the innovation and application of green technology can promote carbon reduction and carbon removal. Compared with existing literature, this paper mainly expands and deepens this study as follows: firstly, the conduction mechanism of green finance enabling carbon neutrality is systematically discussed in theory; secondly, carbon deficit, carbon reduction, and carbon removal are included in the same analytical framework to test the promoting effect of green finance development on carbon neutrality and its spatial spillover effect. This study shows that green finance development will not only help achieve local carbon neutrality, but also have positive spatial spillover effects on neighboring areas. It is necessary to further tap and enhance the positive effects of green finance development, strengthen its guiding role in capital flow, strengthen green regulation, and focus on solving problems such as insufficient investment in green technology innovation and misallocation of green resources. In particular, it is necessary to pay attention to and avoid the negative impact of the “greenwashing” phenomenon.

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田嘉莉,黄文艳,彭甲超,付书科.绿色金融赋能碳中和的传导机制与空间效应[J].西部论坛,2022,32(5):44-62

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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-12-16