雾霾污染的金融风险演化路径研究——来自中国工业企业的经验证据
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A Study on the Evolutionary Path of Financial Risks of Haze Pollution: Empirical Evidence from China’s Industrial Firms
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    摘要:

    环境污染不但会对人类可持续发展的生态安全带来威胁,而且可能通过影响微观主体的经济行为演化为一种或多种经济风险。生态风险与经济风险具有内在的联系,然而现有文献对两者的演化效应和路径缺乏深入研究,尤其缺少经验证据。本文选择生态风险中较为普遍和显性的雾霾污染和最可能引发经济危机的金融风险,探讨雾霾污染的金融风险演化路径。首先,地区雾霾污染加剧会恶化企业的生产经营状态,但这种影响在短期内不会反映到企业经营绩效的显性指标上;然后,生产经营风险的提高会驱动企业融资需求增长,由于信息的不对称和雾霾污染引发企业经营风险的隐蔽性,金融机构面对这种借贷需求增长往往会采取“弱控制”策略,导致企业的负债规模和偿债压力显著增加(尤其是短期负债);同时,实际生产经营状况的恶化使企业的现金流和抵押品价值减少,导致企业的偿债能力减弱;进而,在偿债压力增加和偿债能力减弱的双重作用下,企业的信贷违约风险加大;进一步,雾霾污染面积和污染程度的持续加大,会使越来越多的企业面临更大的信贷违约风险,进而可能演化为系统性金融风险。采用1998—2015年中国工业企业的相关数据和县域PM2.5浓度及天气数据,并以大气层逆温差为工具变量的实证分析发现:地区PM2.5浓度的增加会使得企业的劳动生产率下降、劳动力成本和销售费用上升,但对销售额和利润率的影响不显著,并在提高企业总负债、流动负债、流动负债比率、利息支出、财务费用的同时降低主营业务收入和固定资产合计,表明雾霾污染加剧可以通过增加企业偿债压力和减弱企业偿债能力的路径产生金融风险演化效应。进一步的分析发现,在2012年“新标准”实施后,雾霾污染的金融风险演化效应不再显著,表明提高环境规制强度不但可以从源头上消除雾霾污染的金融风险演化效应,而且可以通过改善金融机构的风险识别和控制机制来阻断雾霾污染的金融风险演化路径。相比现有文献,本文从微观层面(企业和金融机构)探讨了雾霾污染的金融风险演化路径,拓展了雾霾污染的经济效应研究,并深化了生态风险与经济风险之间的演化研究,同时也为雾霾污染的金融风险演化效应提供了经验证据。本文研究表明,雾霾污染具有潜在的金融风险演化效应,应通过强化环境规制、积极发展绿色金融以及完善金融机构的风险识别和控制机制等来阻断其演化路径,以更有效地防范重大金融风险。

    Abstract:

    Environmental pollution not only poses a threat to the ecological security of sustainable human development, but also may evolve into one or more economic risks through the economic behavior of micro-entities. Ecological risks and economic risks are intrinsically linked, yet the existing literature lacks in-depth studies on the evolutionary effects and pathways of both, especially the empirical evidence. In this paper, we select haze pollution, which is more prevalent and visible among ecological risks, and financial risks, which are most likely to trigger economic crises, to explore the evolutionary paths of financial risks from haze pollution. Firstly, the increase in regional haze pollution will worsen the production and operation status of enterprises, but this impact will not be reflected in the explicit indicators of enterprise business performance in the short term. Then, the increase in production and operation risks will drive the increase of enterprises’ financing demand. Due to the asymmetry of information and the hidden nature of enterprise operation risks caused by haze pollution, financial institutions tend to adopt a “weak control” strategy in the face of this increase in borrowing demand, resulting in a significant increase in enterprises’ debt scale and debt service pressure (especially short-term liabilities). At the same time, the deterioration of the actual production and operation conditions reduces the cash flow and collateral value of enterprises, resulting in weakened debt servicing ability of enterprises. In turn, the credit default risk of enterprises increases under the dual effect of increased debt servicing pressure and weakened debt servicing capacity. Further, the continuous increase of haze pollution areas and pollution levels will expose more and more enterprises to greater credit default risk, which may then evolve into systemic financial risk. The empirical analysis uses data related to China’s industrial firms and county PM2.5 concentrations and weather data from 1998 to 2015, with the atmospheric inverse temperature difference as an instrumental variable. The analysis finds that an increase in regional PM2.5 concentration causes a decrease in labor productivity and an increase in labor costs and selling expenses, but has a non-significant effect on sales and profitability, and decreases main business income and total fixed assets while increasing total corporate debt, current liabilities, current liability ratio, interest expenses, and financial expenses, indicating that increased haze pollution can produce financial risk evolutionary effects through the path of increasing corporate debt service pressure and weakening corporate debt service capacity. Further analysis finds that the financial risk evolution effect of haze pollution is no longer significant after the implementation of the “new standard” in 2012, indicating that increasing the intensity of environmental regulation can not only eliminate the financial risk evolution effect of haze pollution at the source, but also block the financial risk evolution path of haze pollution by improving the risk identification and control mechanisms of financial institutions. Compared with the existing literature, this paper explores the financial risk evolution path of haze pollution at the micro level (enterprises and financial institutions), expands the study of the economic effects of haze pollution, deepens the study of the evolution between ecological and economic risks, and also provides empirical evidence for the financial risk evolution effects of haze pollution. This paper shows that haze pollution has potential financial risk evolutionary effects, and its evolutionary path should be blocked by strengthening environmental regulation, actively developing green finance, and improving risk identification and control mechanisms of financial institutions in order to prevent major financial risks more effectively.

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曹斯蔚.雾霾污染的金融风险演化路径研究——来自中国工业企业的经验证据[J].西部论坛,2022,32(5):26-43

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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-12-16