货币国际化对金融服务贸易竞争力的影响研究
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Research on the Influence of Currency Internationalization on the Competitiveness of Financial Service Trade
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    摘要:

    金融服务贸易不但是服务贸易的重要组成部分,而且是国内外要素流动和配置的重要渠道,金融服务贸易竞争力的提高有利于国内国际双循环的相互促进。人民币国际化水平的不断提升有效促进了中国对外贸易的发展,然而现有文献缺乏对货币国际化与金融服务贸易竞争力之间关系的经验研究。本文认为,一国的货币国际化水平提高使本国货币在国际经济活动中的认可度增强、使用范围和领域扩大,可以降低其金融服务贸易中货币兑换产生的显性交易成本和汇率波动带来的隐性交易成本,也有助于其国内金融业发展质量和对外开放水平的提高,进而扩大金融服务贸易的有效需求,并提升和优化金融服务贸易的供给质量和结构,从供需两端发力提高本国的金融服务贸易竞争力;只有当货币国际化水平持续显著提高时,其金融服务贸易竞争力促进效应才会显现,而金融业开放则会显著强化该效应。基于货币的三大职能构建货币国际化水平评价指标体系,运用主成分分析法测度美元、欧元、英镑、日元、人民币、澳元、加元和瑞士法郎等8种货币的国际化水平,进而采用2013—2019年的面板数据检验货币国际化水平与金融服务贸易竞争力之间的关系,分析结果显示:人民币国际化水平逐年上升,呈快速发展趋势,但仍落后于SDR货币篮子中的其他货币;样本国家(地区)货币国际化水平的提高对其金融服务贸易竞争力提升总体上具有显著的促进作用,但这种促进作用存在异质性,表现为纳入SDR货币篮子的货币国际化具有显著的金融服务贸易竞争力促进效应,而未纳入SDR货币篮子的货币国际化未产生显著的金融服务贸易竞争力促进效应;金融业FDI对货币国际化促进金融服务贸易竞争力提升具有调节作用,表现为金融业FDI流入规模的增加会显著增强货币国际化的金融服务贸易竞争力促进效应。相比现有文献,本文进行了如下拓展和深化:一是从金融服务贸易的角度拓展了货币国际化的经济效应研究;二是以当前8种主要的国际货币为样本,实证分析货币国际化与金融服务贸易竞争力之间的关系,并进一步检验其货币异质性和金融业FDI的调节作用,为货币国际化促进金融服务贸易竞争力提升提供了经验证据。本文验证了货币国际化对金融服务贸易竞争力提升的促进作用,有助于在当前复杂的国际经济环境中加快人民币国际化进程,并充分发挥人民币国际化对金融服务贸易竞争力提升的促进作用。

    Abstract:

    Financial service trade is not only an important part of service trade, but also an important channel for the flow and allocation of factors at home and abroad. The improvement of the competitiveness of financial service trade is conducive to the mutual promotion of domestic and international dual circulation. The continuous improvement of the level of RMB internationalization has effectively promoted the development of China’s foreign trade. However, the existing literature lacks research on the relationship between currency internationalization and the competitiveness of financial services trade. This paper believes that the improvement of a country’s currency internationalization level enhances the recognition of its currency in international economic activities, and expands the serviceable range and scope of its currency. It can reduce the explicit transaction costs caused by currency exchange and the implicit transaction costs caused by exchange rate fluctuations in its financial services trade. It also helps to improve the development quality of the domestic financial industry and the level of opening to the outside world, so as to expand the effective demand for financial service trade, improve and optimize the supply quality and structure of financial service trade, and improve the competitiveness of domestic financial service trade from both supply and demand. Only when the level of currency internationalization continues to increase significantly, its effect of promoting the competitiveness of financial services trade will appear, and the opening of the financial industry will significantly strengthen this effect. Based on the three functions of currency, an evaluation index system of currency internationalization level is constructed, and the principal component analysis method is used to measure the internationalization level of 8 currencies including the US dollar, the euro, the British pound, the Japanese yen, the RMB, Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc. Then, the panel data from 2013 to 2019 is used to examine the relationship between the level of currency internationalization and the competitiveness of financial services trade. The analysis results show that the internationalization level of RMB has been increasing year by year, showing a rapid development trend, but it still lags behind other currencies in the SDR currency basket; the improvement of the currency internationalization level of the sample countries (regions) has a significant promotion effect on the overall competitiveness of their financial services trade, but this promotion effect is heterogeneous, which shows that the internationalization of currencies included in the SDR basket has a significant promoting effect on the competitiveness of financial service trade. However, the internationalization of currencies not included in the SDR basket has not produced a significant effect on promoting the competitiveness of financial services trade; financial FDI has a regulating effect on currency internationalization to promote the competitiveness of financial services trade, which shows that the increase of financial FDI inflow will significantly enhance the promotion effect of currency internationalization on financial service trade competitiveness. Compared with the existing literature, this paper has expanded and deepened this study from the following two aspects. One is to expand the research on the economic effects of currency internationalization from the perspective of financial services trade; the other is to empirically analyze the relationship between currency internationalization and financial service trade competitiveness by taking eight major international currencies as samples, and further test the moderating effects of currency heterogeneity and financial FDI, which provides empirical evidence for currency internationalization to promote the competitiveness of financial services trade. This paper verifies the role of currency internationalization in promoting the competitiveness of financial service trade, which is helpful to accelerate the process of RMB internationalization in the current complex international economic environment, and give full play to the role of RMB internationalization in promoting the competitiveness of financial service trade.

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项圆心,王雪梅.货币国际化对金融服务贸易竞争力的影响研究[J].西部论坛,2022,32(4):41-54

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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-10-13