收入分配调节、社会保障完善与生育率回升——低生育率阶段的欧盟经验与启示
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Adjustment of Income Distribution, Improvement of Social Security and Rebound of Fertility Rate: EU Experience and Enlightenment in the Stage of Low Fertility Rate
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    摘要:

    当前中国已进入低生育率社会,持续低生育率及其带来的劳动力供给结构问题日益受到关注。理论上讲,收入分配的平均化和社会保障对生育支持的强化会促进生育率提升,然而现有文献对于在低生育率阶段收入分配状况和社会保障支出影响生育率的经验分析不足。从高生育率阶段进入低生育率阶段的生育转变主要是由于人们的生育观念从追求生育数量向追求生育质量转变,而追求生育质量导致的生育成本持续增高成为抑制生育率的重要因素之一,尤其是低收入家庭的生育行为受到较大的收入约束,使其实际生育数量低于潜在生育意愿。收入分配的平均化不但减少低收入家庭在整个社会中的占比,而且通过缩小收入差距降低低收入家庭生育行为的收入约束,进而促进整体生育率提升;基于人们对高质量生育的诉求以及优化劳动力供给结构的目标,强化生育支持的社会保障改善则会降低社会平均生育成本,从而促进整体生育率提升。欧盟地区较早进入低生育率阶段并出现了一定的生育率回升,本文以2000—2020年欧盟27个国家为样本的实证分析发现:总体上看,样本国家的基尼系数与总和生育率显著负相关,而社会保障支出与总和生育率显著正相关;随着总和生育率的提高,基尼系数降低对总和生育率提升的促进作用从不显著转变为显著并持续增强,而社会保障支出增加对总和生育率提升的促进作用在不同的生育率水平下均显著;基尼系数和社会保障支出对总和生育率的影响具有相互强化的交互效应,即基尼系数降低会强化社会保障支出增加对总和生育率提升的促进作用,社会保障支出增加也会强化基尼系数降低对总和生育率提升的促进作用。相比现有文献,本文主要进行了以下拓展和深化:一是基于欧盟地区的实证分析为在低生育率阶段收入分配平均化和社会保障完善可以显著促进生育率提升提供了经验证据,二是通过分位数检验和交互效应分析进一步明确了基尼系数和社会保障支出影响总和生育率的机制。本文揭示了在低生育阶段可以通过调节收入分配和完善社会保障促进生育率提升,有利于在促进共同富裕中实现生育和人口高质量发展。要在通过高质量经济发展为持续提高生育质量提供物质保障的基础上,不断缩小收入差距和加大生育支持,进而有效提升整体生育率。

    Abstract:

    At present, China has entered a low-fertility society, and the continuous low fertility rate and the labor supply structure problems caused by it have attracted increasing attention. Theoretically, the equalization of income distribution and the strengthening of social security to support fertility will promote an increase in fertility. However, the existing literature lacks empirical analysis on the impact of income distribution and social security expenditure on fertility in the low fertility stage. The fertility transition from the high-fertility stage to the low-fertility stage is mainly due to the change of people’s concept of fertility from the pursuit of fertility to the pursuit of fertility quality, and the continuous increase in fertility costs caused by the pursuit of fertility quality has become one of the important factors that inhibit fertility. In particular, the fertility behavior of low-income families is subject to greater income constraints, so their actual number of children is lower than the potential willingness to have children. The equalization of income distribution not only reduces the proportion of low-income families in the whole society, but also reduces the income constraints of low-income families’ reproductive behavior by narrowing the income gap, thereby promoting the overall fertility rate; based on people’s demands for high-quality fertility and the goal of optimizing the structure of labor supply, the improvement of social security that strengthens fertility support will reduce the average fertility cost of society, thereby promoting the overall fertility rate. The EU entered the low fertility stage earlier and there was a certain fertility recovery, this paper takes the 27 EU countries from 2000 to 2020 as a sample of empirical analysis and finds that on the whole, the Gini coefficient of the sample countries is significantly negatively correlated with the total fertility rate, while social security expenditures are significantly positively correlated with the total fertility rate; as the total fertility rate increases, the promotion effect of the Gini coefficient reduction on the increase in the total fertility rate has changed from not significant to significant and continues to increase, while the promotion effect of increased social security expenditure on the increase in total fertility has been significant at different fertility levels; the impact of Gini coefficient and social security expenditure on the total fertility rate has a mutually reinforcing interaction effect, that is, the decrease of the Gini coefficient will strengthen the promotion effect of the increase of social security expenditure on the increase of the total fertility rate, and the increase of social security expenditure will also strengthen the promotion effect of the reduction of the Gini coefficient on the improvement of the total fertility rate. Compared with the existing literature, this paper expands and deepens this study mainly from the following aspects: on one hand, the empirical analysis in the EU region provides empirical evidence that the equalization of income distribution and the improvement of social security can significantly promote the increase of fertility in the low-fertility stage; on the other hand, through quantile test and interaction effect analysis, the mechanism of Gini coefficient and social security expenditure affecting total fertility rate was further clarified. This paper reveals that in the low fertility stage, the fertility rate can be increased by adjusting income distribution and improving social security, which is conducive to the realization of high-quality fertility and population development in the promotion of common prosperity. On the basis of providing material guarantees for the continuous improvement of fertility quality through high-quality economic development, we should continue to narrow the income gap and increase fertility support, thereby effectively increasing the overall fertility rate.

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王丛雷,罗淳.收入分配调节、社会保障完善与生育率回升——低生育率阶段的欧盟经验与启示[J].西部论坛,2022,32(2):78-93

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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-06-12