货币政策的国际溢出效应与国际协调研究进展
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Research Progress on the International Spillover Effect and International Coordination of Monetary Policy
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    摘要:

    随着世界各国经济活动关联程度的不断增强,一国货币政策变动对其他国家经济社会发展的影响越来越显著,国家间的货币政策协调也愈加重要。在此背景下,有关货币政策国际溢出效应的研究日益丰富,货币政策的国际协调也逐渐受到关注。本文对货币政策国际溢出效应及国际协调领域的现有文献进行回顾和展望。从货币政策国际溢出效应研究的发展历程来看,1990年以前相关研究主要基于开放条件下的宏观经济模型及博弈论等进行理论探讨,1990年至2000年多数研究开始借助动态随机一般均衡模型和经济计量模型探究货币政策国际溢出效应的传导机制和渠道,2000年以后越来越多的研究将理论应用于对现实经济问题的解释,其中以探讨中心国家货币政策的国际溢出效应为主。从货币政策国际溢出效应的研究方法来看,相关研究大多通过控制货币政策的内生变化来获取货币政策的外生冲击,主流研究方法也逐渐从基于MFD模型的纯理论分析转向基于VAR系列模型的实证分析和具有一致性框架的DSGE模型分析。从货币政策国际溢出效应的传导渠道来看,早期文献大多认为汇率和贸易是主要渠道,随着全球经济金融一体化的推进,金融渠道的作用日益凸显,且比汇率渠道和贸易渠道传导更加迅速、后果更为严重,并逐渐成为近些年研究的重点。由于货币政策的国际协调在实践中存在一定难度以及经济下行压力较大下的货币政策调整空间较小,目前关于货币政策国际协调的研究相对较少,而且相关研究的观点并不统一。大部分学者认为随着世界经济联动趋势的不断增强,货币政策国际协调是必然趋势并有利于各国经济发展,而部分学者认为政策协调需要花费大量的时间和政治成本,货币政策的国际协调应慎重。现有研究已经取得丰硕成果,但仍需进一步深化和拓展:一是大多数文献仅考察中心国家货币政策对外围国家(新兴经济体)的单向溢出效应,有必要进一步考察货币政策的双向国际溢出效应;二是关于金融渠道的研究还不够完善,尤其是对货币政策不确定性冲击、全球金融风险传递等的研究较少,相关研究需要深化;三是关于货币政策国际协调的研究较少且观点不统一,尤其是对政策协调的有效路径缺乏系统研究,相关研究有待加强。中国学者应加强该领域的研究,尤其要在中国货币政策的国际溢出效应及其传导渠道、应对国外货币政策溢出效应的有效政策工具、促进货币政策的国际协调等方面取得突破。

    Abstract:

    With the continuous enhancement of the correlation of economic activities in various countries in the world, the impact of changes in a country’s monetary policy on the economic and social development of other countries has become more and more significant, and the coordination of monetary policies between countries has become more and more important. In this context, studies on the international spillover effects of monetary policy are increasingly abundant, and the international coordination of monetary policy is gradually attracting attention. This paper reviews and prospects the literature on international spillover effects and international coordination of monetary policy. From the perspective of the development process of international spillover effect research on monetary policy, before 1990, the relevant research was mainly based on macroeconomic models and game theory under open conditions for theoretical discussion. From 1990 to 2000, most of the research began to explore the transmission mechanism and channel of the international spillover effect of monetary policy with the help of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models and economic econometric models. After 2000, more and more researches applied the theory to the explanation of real economic problems, especially focusing on the spillover effects of monetary policy in central countries. From the perspective of research methods on the international spillover effects of monetary policy, most of the relevant researches obtain exogenous monetary policy shocks by controlling the endogenous changes in monetary policy, and the mainstream research methods have gradually shifted from pure theoretical analysis based on MFD models to empirical analysis based on VAR series models and DSGE model analysis with a consistent framework. From the perspective of the transmission channels of the international spillover effect of monetary policy, most of the early literature believes that exchange rate and trade are the main channels. With the advancement of global economic and financial integration, the role of financial channels has become increasingly prominent, and financial channels not only have a faster transmission process but also have more serious consequences compared with exchange rates and trade channels, thus becoming the focus of research in recent years. Due to the difficulty of international coordination of monetary policy in practice and the small space for monetary policy adjustment under greater economic downward pressure, there are relatively few studies on the international coordination of monetary policy, and the views of related research are not unified. Most scholars believe that with the continuous enhancement of the trend of world economic linkage, the international coordination of monetary policy is an inevitable trend and is conducive to the economic development of countries around the world, while some scholars argue that the issue of international monetary policy coordination needs to be treated with caution because policy coordination requires time and political costs. The existing research has achieved fruitful results, but it still needs to be further deepened and expanded: first, most of the literature only examines the one-way spillover effect of the monetary policy of the central country on the peripheral countries (emerging economies), and it is necessary to further examine the two-way international spillover effect of monetary policy; second, the research on financial channels is not perfect enough, especially the research on the impact of monetary policy uncertainty and the transmission of global financial risks is less, and related research needs to be deepened; third, there are few studies on the international coordination of monetary policy and the views are not unified, especially the lack of systematic research on the effective path of policy coordination, and related research needs to be strengthened. Chinese scholars should strengthen their research in this field, especially to make breakthroughs in the international spillover effects of China’s monetary policy and its transmission channels, effective policy tools to deal with the spillover effects of foreign monetary policies, and the promotion of international coordination of monetary policies.

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马振宇.货币政策的国际溢出效应与国际协调研究进展[J].西部论坛,2022,32(2):63-77

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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-06-12