目的地贸易便利化对贸易中介作用的影响研究——基于中国出口产品的经验分析
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The Effect of Destination Trade Facilitation on Trade Intermediation: Based on the Empirical Analysis of China’s Export Products
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    摘要:

    由于受到出口成本的约束,一些中小企业和低效率企业会选择通过贸易中介间接出口产品。世界各国的贸易便利化有效降低了国际贸易的交易成本,促使一些间接出口的企业转向直接出口,贸易中介的可持续发展受到挑战。然而,现有文献较少从贸易中介角度对贸易便利化的经济效应进行研究,尤其缺乏其异质性的经验分析。本文认为,目的地贸易便利化改革会降低国外企业对其出口产品的门槛,弱化贸易中介在出口贸易中的作用,使出口国间接出口产品的比重降低;由于制度变迁的经济效应通常呈现递减趋势,对于间接出口占比较高(贸易相对不便利)的目的地和出口产品,目的地贸易便利化对贸易中介作用的弱化效应更为显著。利用《全球竞争力报告》和“中国海关数据库”等,以2007—2015年中国对近150个目的地出口的约4700种产品为样本的分析表明,目的地贸易便利化水平的提高显著降低了中国对其产品出口额(量)中间接出口的占比,导致中国产品出口贸易中介作用下降。进一步设置若干目的地类型和出口产品种类的虚拟变量,通过调节效应模型检验目的地贸易便利化影响出口贸易中介作用的异质性,结果表明,相对来讲,贸易不便利、收入水平较低、发展水平较低、未与中国签订FTA、不属于“一带一路”地区的样本目的地贸易便利化水平提高对中国产品间接出口额(量)占比的负面影响更大,必需品、低技术复杂度产品、特别贸易关注产品的间接出口额(量)占比在目的地贸易便利化水平提高时下降的幅度更为明显。相比现有文献,本文主要在以下两个方面进行拓展和深化:一是探究目的地贸易便利化对出口贸易中介作用的弱化效应及其目的地异质性和出口产品异质性,拓展关于贸易便利化经济效应的研究视角;二是以中国的出口产品为研究样本,为目的地贸易便利化对贸易中介作用的影响及其异质性提供经验证据,有助于深化对出口贸易中介作用的认识。本文的研究揭示了目的地贸易便利化对出口贸易中介作用的弱化效应及其在目的地类型和出口产品种类上的异质性表现,可以为新发展阶段贸易中介的转型升级和高质量发展提供路径指引和策略启示,进而促进贸易中介在构建新发展格局中发挥更为积极的作用。

    Abstract:

    Constrained by export costs, some small and medium-sized enterprises and inefficient enterprises will choose to export products indirectly through trade intermediaries. The trade facilitation of countries in the world has effectively reduced the transaction cost of international trade, prompting some indirect export enterprises to switch to direct export, and the sustainable development of trade intermediaries has been challenged. However, the existing literature seldom studies the economic effects of trade facilitation from the perspective of trade intermediaries, especially the lack of empirical analysis of its heterogeneity. This paper holds that the reform of destination trade facilitation will reduce the threshold for foreign enterprises to export products, weaken the role of trade intermediary in export trade, and reduce indirect export products of exporting countries; since the economic effect of institutional changes usually shows a decreasing trend, for destinations and export products with a high proportion of indirect exports (relative inconvenience in trade), destination trade facilitation weakens the role of trade intermediary more significantly. Based on the Global Competitiveness Report and China Customs Data, this paper analyzes about 4 700 products exported by China to nearly 150 destinations from 2007 to 2015. The analysis shows that the improvement of the level of destination trade facilitation has significantly reduced the proportion of China’s indirect exports in the export value (volume) of its products, resulting in a decline in the intermediary role of China’s product exports. This paper further sets up several dummy variables of destination types and export product types, and tests the heterogeneity of the effect of destination trade facilitation on the intermediary effect of export trade through the moderating effect model. The results show that, relatively speaking, for the sample destinations that are inconvenient to trade, have low incomes, have low levels of development, and have not signed FTA with China, and do not belong to the “Belt and Road” region, the increase in the level of trade facilitation has a greater negative impact on the proportion (volume) of indirect exports of Chinese products, and the proportion (volume) of indirect exports of necessities, products with low technical complexity, and products of special trade concern declined more significantly when the level of trade facilitation at the destination increased. Compared with the existing literature, this paper mainly expands and deepens the research in the following two aspects: on one hand, this paper explores the weakening effect of destination trade facilitation on the intermediary effect of export trade and its destination heterogeneity and export product heterogeneity, and expands the research perspective on the economic effect of trade facilitation; on the other hand, taking China’s export products as a research sample, this paper provides empirical evidence for the effect of destination trade facilitation on trade intermediation and its heterogeneity, and helps to deepen our understanding of the intermediary role of export trade. The research in this paper reveals the weakening effect of destination trade facilitation on the intermediary effect of export trade and its heterogeneity in destination types and export product types, which can provide path guidance and strategic inspiration for the transformation and upgrading and high-quality development of trade intermediaries in the new development stage, thereby promoting trade intermediaries to play a more active role in building a new development pattern.

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田曦,王君.目的地贸易便利化对贸易中介作用的影响研究——基于中国出口产品的经验分析[J].西部论坛,2022,32(2):16-31

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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-06-12