生产性服务进口与制造业升级的双向联动机制——中国制造业发展的经验分析
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A Two-way Linkage Effect between the Import of Productive Services and the Upgrading of Manufacturing Industry in China: Experience Analysis of the Development of China’s Manufacturing Industry
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    摘要:

    生产性服务进口不但可以通过改善中间品供给质量和结构促进国内制造业产品质量的提升和产出规模的增长,而且可以通过技术溢出、知识溢出、人力资本溢出效应推动国内制造业技术升级;国内制造业产出增长会通过需求效应带动生产性服务进口规模扩大,国内制造业升级则会通过增加对富含技术、知识和人力资本要素的生产性服务的需求带动生产性服务进口的质量提升和结构优化;从而,形成生产性服务进口对制造业升级的前向推动效应与制造业升级对生产性服务进口的后向拉动效应相互促进、良性循环的双向联动机制。基于WIOT采用投入产出技术分析2000—2014年中国的生产性服务进口与国内制造业的产业关联,结果表明:国内生产性服务投入对制造业发展的前向推动效应远远大于国外生产性服务投入,制造业发展对国内生产性服务业的后向拉动效应也远远大于生产性服务进口;生产性服务进口对中国制造业产出增长和技术升级的前向推动效应显著,且生产性服务进口质量越高对制造业升级的推动效应越强;制造业产出增长对生产性服务进口规模具有后向拉动效应,而制造业技术升级对生产性服务进口质量具有后向拉动效应,且技术密度较高制造业行业对高技术密度生产性服务进口的需求拉动效应更大。因此,要以本土制造业供给质量提升和技术升级为主体,以生产性服务进口质量提升和结构优化为催化剂,构建国内外产业相互融合相互促进的“生产性服务进口+制造业升级”双向联动网络:一是通过扩大市场开放增加国外生产性服务在国内制造业中的投入,尤其要提高“FCB”领域的开放水平以引导和促进国外先进生产性服务要素投入;二是充分挖掘和利用生产性服务进口的技术溢出、知识溢出和人力资本溢出效应,有效推动制造业转型升级和高质量发展;三是加快制造业转型升级以进一步拉动高质量生产性服务进口。

    Abstract:

    The import of productive services can not only improve the quality of domestic manufacturing products and increase the output scale by improving the supply quality and structure of intermediate goods, but also promote the technological upgrading of domestic manufacturing industry through technology spillover, knowledge spillover and human capital spillover effect. The growth of domestic manufacturing output will drive the expansion of productive service import through demand effect, and the upgrading of domestic manufacturing will drive the quality improvement and structure optimization of productive service import by increasing the demand for productive service rich in technology, knowledge and human capital elements. As a result, a virtuous circle of a two-way linkage mechanism in which the forward driving effect of the import of productive services on the upgrading of the manufacturing industry and the backward pulling effect of the upgrading of the manufacturing industry on the import of productive services are mutually promoted is formed. Based on the input-output technology of WIOT, the industrial correlation between China’s import of productive services and the domestic manufacturing industry from 2000 to 2014 was analyzed. The results show that the forward driving effect of domestic producer service input on the development of the manufacturing industry is far greater than that of foreign producer service input, and the backward driving effect of manufacturing industry development on domestic producer services is far greater than that of producer service import. The import of productive services has a significant forward promoting effect on China’s manufacturing output growth and technological upgrading, and the higher the quality of the import of productive services, the stronger the promoting effect on manufacturing upgrading. The growth of manufacturing output has a backward pull effect on the import scale of productive services, while the upgrading of manufacturing technology has a backward pull effect on the import quality of productive services, and the manufacturing industry with higher technology density has a greater pull effect on the import demand of high-technology density productive services. Therefore, with the improvement of supply quality and technological upgrading of local manufacturing industry as the main body, and the improvement of import quality and structural optimization of productive services as the catalyst, a two-way linkage network of “import of productive services + upgrade of manufacturing industry” should be established to integrate and promote domestic and foreign industries. And the following three aspects should be followed. The first is to increase the investment of foreign productive services in the domestic manufacturing industry by expanding market opening, especially to increase the level of openness in the “FCB” field to guide and promote the input of foreign advanced productive service elements; the second is to fully tap and utilize the technology spillover, knowledge spillover and human capital spillover effect of the import of productive services to effectively promote the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry and high-quality development; the third is to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry to further promote the import of high-quality productive services.

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张昕.生产性服务进口与制造业升级的双向联动机制——中国制造业发展的经验分析[J].西部论坛,2021,31(5):15-33

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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-11-23