能源消费困境:促进工业增长与阻碍结构调整并存——生产要素贡献和能源强度分解双重视角的实证分析
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The “Dilemma” of Energy Consumption: Coexistence of Promoting Industrial Growth and Restraining Structural Adjustment—An Empirical Analysis Based on Contribution of Production Factors and Energy Intensity Decomposition
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    摘要:

    能源消费的增长会促进工业产出的增长,但也会阻碍工业结构的优化和升级。将能源作为生产要素引入C-D生产函数,利用中国2000—2014年工业及其内部各行业的相关数据,测算能源消费和其他要素对工业增长的贡献,并运用LMDI能源强度分解模型分析技术进步和结构转换对工业能源强度变化的影响,结果表明:中国工业增长具有“资本和能源双驱动”的特征,能源产出弹性接近同期资本产出弹性,远高于劳动产出弹性,要素贡献则表现为“资本和能源为主,全要素生产率和劳动为辅”;工业能源强度不断降低,但下降幅度趋缓;工业能源强度的降低得益于各行业普遍的技术进步,但通过技术进步进一步降低能耗已越来越难;工业结构升级进展缓慢,高耗能产业增加值比重不降反升,结构因子对能源强度降低具有负作用。因此,未来要进一步降低工业能源强度,必须重点推进工业内部结构调整和升级,减少工业发展对能源的依赖程度。

    Abstract:

    Energy consumption growth promotes industrial output growth but obstructs the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. Energy, as production factor, is introduced into C-D production function, by using the related data of industry and all industries inside industry of China during 2000-2014, this paper measures the contribution of energy consumption and other factors to industrial growth, and uses LMDI energy strength decomposition model to analyze the influence of technical progress and structure transformation on industrial energy intensity change. The results show that China’s industrial growth has the feature of double-driving by capital and energy, energy output elasticity closes to capital output elasticity over the same period and is far higher than labor output elasticity, that factor contribution is made mainly by capital and energy and then by TFP and labor, that industrial energy intensity is continuously decreasing but the decreasing extent is slowed down, that general technological progress in various industries plays a decisive role in reducing the intensity of industrial energy consumption, but the rate of decrease in energy intensity slows down and further reduction of energy consumption through technological progress has become increasingly difficult, that the slow progress of industrial structure adjustment makes the proportion of high energy consumption industry rise but not fall, and the structural factor hinders the decrease of the energy intensity. Therefore, in order to reduce the intensity of industrial energy consumption, it is significant to focus on promoting the internal structural adjustment and upgrading of the industry and to reduce the dependence on energy.

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张艳芳a,付一夫b,夏宜君b,,曲直.能源消费困境:促进工业增长与阻碍结构调整并存——生产要素贡献和能源强度分解双重视角的实证分析[J].西部论坛,2017,27(4):93-104

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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-08-16