With the deepening and popularization of register system, the free degree of China’s agricultural population to transfer between districts and between provinces becomes bigger and bigger, however, voluntary transferred agricultural population always follows economic principle. Based on economic rational choice theory, from the perspective of benefit cost, the measuring model for interprovincial transferred agricultural population is constructed. By using statistical data of 31 provinces and municipalities, we calculate payoff matrix of the transferred population, outward transfer pull and inward transfer gravitation, and analysis shows that the inward gravitation in each province and municipality is big while the outward transfer pull is basically the same, that whether the provincial agricultural population transfers into the local town or the other provinces is mainly determined by the inward transfer gravitation, and that the provinces and the municipalities whose inward transfer gravitation is bigger than outward transfer pull have net population inflow. Further analysis and prediction reveal that the population in each place will flow to the developed provinces and municipalities around Bohai area, Yangtze River delta and Zhujiang River delta. The places with outward transfer population need the economic development bigger than the developed places and need to improve labor wages so that more agricultural transfer population can be kept in local places.