影响城乡消费二元化的显性与隐性因素研究——基于CHFS2011年数据的分位数回归和分解
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Research on Explicit and Implicit Factors Affecting Urban and Rural Consumption Duality—Based on Quantile Regression and Decomposition of CHFS Data of 2011
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    摘要:

    将影响居民消费差异的因素分为由家庭特征代表的“显性因素”和由市场性因素及社会性因素代表的“隐性因素”,利用中国家庭金融调查与研究中心(CHFS)2011年全国调查数据,通过分位数回归模型测算各项影响因素在不同分位数水平下的城乡边际消费倾向,并采用Blinder-Oaxaca方法和分位数分解对城乡家庭消费差异及趋势进行实证分析,结果表明:农村家庭消费对收入的弹性明显高于城镇家庭,分位数越高,收入对消费的促进作用越小;显性因素是城乡消费差异的主要影响因素,且对不同消费水平城乡家庭的影响程度不同;城乡消费差异随分位数增加而减小,隐性因素作用的减弱是差异减小的主要原因。城乡消费二元化的形成,不仅仅是家庭特征代表的显性因素(收入、养老保障、年龄、受教育年限等)导致的,不同的社会经济环境所形成的隐性因素(偏好、习惯以及所处的发展阶段等)也是城乡消费二元化的重要原因和组成部分。

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    Factors affecting resident consumption are divided into explict factors represented by household charactoristics and implicit factors represented by market factors and social factors. With the data of Chinese Household Finance Survey (CHFS) in 2011, this paper utilizes quantile regression model to measure the various factors’ marginal propensity to consume in different quantile levels, and applies Blinder-Oaxaca method and quantile decomposition to explore the difference and trend between urban and rural households consumption. The empirical analysis shows that the elasticity of rural household consumption to income is obviously higher than that of urban households, and the higher the quantile is, the less the promoting effect of income on consumption is;explict factors are the main factors effecting urban and rural consumption difference, and the influence is different from household to household on consumption level both in urban and rural area;urban and rural consumption difference becomes less with the increase of quantile, and the weakening of implicit factors’ effect is the main reseaon for the less difference. The urban and rural consumption duality is as a result of not only explict factors represented by household characteristics(income, pension scheme, age, years of schooling, etc. ), but also implicit factors caused by different social and economic environment(preference, habit and the development stage).

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刘后平,李源,张国麒.影响城乡消费二元化的显性与隐性因素研究——基于CHFS2011年数据的分位数回归和分解[J].西部论坛,2015,25(5):1-11

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