中国农村人口老龄化的趋势、影响与应对
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Population Ageing in Rural China:Trends,Impacts and Suggestions
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    摘要:

    中国农村人口老龄化具有程度高于城镇、速度快于城镇、地区差异大于城镇、老年人口多于城镇等特征,应对农村人口老龄化更为急迫,任务也更为艰巨。未来中国农村人口老龄化将继续发展,并表现出明显的阶段性特征:2010—2020年为快速发展阶段,是应对农村人口老龄化的战略机遇期;2021—2034年为高速发展阶段,是应对农村人口老龄化的关键时期;2035—2050年为高位发展阶段,是应对人口老龄化的常态化时期。农村人口老龄化将对农村劳动力供给、经济发展、社会保障制度风险、养老服务需求等产生深远影响。必须高度重视应对农村人口老龄化,加大对农业、农村的投入,积极推进农业现代化;加快户籍制度改革,减缓农村人口老龄化进程;完善农村社会保障体系和农村社会服务体系,促进城乡社会保障和服务一体化。

    Abstract:

    The population ageing in rural China has several features:higher ageing level, faster ageing speed, larger regional difference and more aging population than those in urban China, so it’s more urgent to deal with the challenge of population ageing in rural area. In the future, population ageing in rural China will continually develop and it will show obvious stage characteristics. 2010—2020, the stage of rapid development, is the period of strategic opportunities;2021—2034, the stage of development at high speed, is the crucial period for coping with population ageing in rural area;2035—2050, the stage of development at its peak, is the normalized period for coping with population ageing. The population ageing will bring deep impacts on labor supply, economy development, social security and elderly services demand in rural area. It is necessary to pay high intention to the rural population ageing by increasing investment in rural area and agriculture, positively promoting agriculture modernization, accelerating household registration system reform, slowing down the process of population ageing in rural area, improving rural social security and constructing rural social service system and boosting the integration of social security and service in rural and urban area.

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林 宝.中国农村人口老龄化的趋势、影响与应对[J].西部论坛,2015,25(2):73-81

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