The market-oriented transition of China and Soviet Union has chosen different paths and their economic performance is largely different. Then, does the difference in their transition effect mainly emanate from the different “initial condition” for their transition or from different selected paths and policies for the transition? Based on “latecomer advantage” theory, by using counterfactual analysis framework, and comparative analysis of “the initial condition” for the transition of China and former Soviet Union shows that, from the perspective of the structure and system formed by the history and strategy of the industrialization, there are many similarities at the initial period of the market-oriented transition between the two countries, that there is not big difference in “the initial condition”, that both former Soviet Union and China have “latecomer advantage”. Furthermore, former Soviet Union has better realization condition for “the latecomer advantage”, but former Soviet Union does not bring her “latecomer advantage” into fully play. Therefore, the effect of market-oriented transition does not mainly depend on “the initial condition” for the transition but rely on “the path selection” for the transition. The success in the market-oriented transition of China should be chiefly owed to the selection of proper transition path and suitable reform policies.