城乡统筹、城镇化与农村居民消费关系研究
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On the Relation between Overall Urban and Rural Development and Urbanization and Rural Inhabitant Consumption
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    摘要:

    城乡统筹是全面建设小康社会的重要任务,城镇化是改革开放后我国经济增长的一大引擎,而农村是近年启动内需的重要市场。采用9个城乡经济社会统筹的基本指标,运用主成分分析法构建反映城乡统筹水平的综合指标,再利用VAR模型研究城乡统筹、城镇化与农村居民消费的关系,分析表明:城乡统筹和城镇化均是农村居民消费的格兰杰原因,城乡统筹和农村居民消费也是城镇化的格兰杰原因;从长期来看,城乡统筹和城镇化的正向冲击均会对农村消费产生正的影响,且两者对农村消费变化的贡献率超过50%。应以城乡统筹、城镇化开启和促进农村内需市场发展,并在城乡统筹的背景下以农村居民消费推进内生性新型城镇化进程。

    Abstract:

    Overall urban and rural development is an important task for China to realize all-round well-off society, and urbanization is a big engine of China’s economic growth after reform and opening-up, as a result, rural areas are an important market to initiate domestic demand. By using 9 basic indexes of overall urban and rural economic development, the comprehensive index for embodying overall urban and rural development level is constructed by principal component analysis method. And the relation between overall urban and rural development, urbanization and rural inhabitant consumption is studied by VAR Model. Analysis shows that both overall urban and rural development and urbanization are the Granger Cause of rural inhabitant consumption, that overall urban and rural development and rural inhabitant consumption are Granger Cause of the urbanization, that from long-term point, the shock on both overall urban and rural development and urbanization has positive influence on rural consumption. Furthermore, the contribution rate of the two to rural consumption change is more than 50 percent. China should initiate and boost rural domestic demand market development by overall urban and rural development and urbanization and use rural inhabitant consumption to promote endogenously new-style urbanization progress under the background of overall urban and rural development.

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夏永祥,盛培宏.城乡统筹、城镇化与农村居民消费关系研究[J].西部论坛,2014,24(6):1-6

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