我国创业板市场与中小板市场的动态相关性研究——基于DCC-GARCH模型和Copula模型的比较分析
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Analysis of Dynamic Correlation between Growth Enterprise Market and the Small and Medium-sized Board Market in China—Comparative Analysis Based on DCC-GARCH Model and Copula Mode
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    摘要:

    金融市场间的相关性研究是金融风险测度及资产组合管理的基础。选取2010年6月1日至2012年5月31日我国的创业板指数(399006)和中小板指数(399005),根据两大指数收益率序列,建立DCC-GARCH模型和Copula模型分别计算两市场间的动态相关系数,研究结果表明:(1)创业板市场与中小板市场存在正相关关系,且相关性很强并具有稳定性;(2)Copula模型考虑了市场间的非线性因素,在刻画金融市场间的相关性方面效果优于DCC-GARCH模型。(3)时变Copula模型捕捉了市场收益率随时间变化的特性,在刻画金融市场间的相关性方面效果要优于常相关Copula模型。因此,我国创业板市场与中小板市场合并是必然趋势;机构投资者宜采用Copula模型分析金融市场间的动态相关性,且不宜跨创业板市场和中小板市场进行资产配置。

    Abstract:

    The study on the correlation between financial markets is the basis of financial risk measurement and assets portfolio management. This paper aims to study the dynamic correlation between growth enterprise market and SME board market by building models according to the return series of the two boards’ indexes and calculating dynamic correlation coefficient of the two markets on the basis of DCC-GARCH model and Copula model by using growth enterprise market index(399006)and small and medium-sized board market index(399005)during June 1st,2010 to May 31st,2012. The study results show as follows:(1)there is positive correlation between growth enterprise market and SME board market and the correlation is very strong and stable;(2)Copula Model considers nonlinear factors between markets and it is better than DCC-GARCH Model in description of the correlation between financial markets;(3)time-varying Copula model is better than constant correlation Copula model in describing the feature of the change of market return rate with the change of time and in describing the correlation between financial markets. Thus,it is an inevitable trend that China’s growth enterprise market mergers with China’s small and medium-sized market,the investors should use Copula Model to analyze dynamic correlation between financial markets but should not invest across growth enterprise market and small and medium-sized market.

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耿庆峰.我国创业板市场与中小板市场的动态相关性研究——基于DCC-GARCH模型和Copula模型的比较分析[J].西部论坛,2013,23(5):79-84

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