重庆中长期劳动力变动及供需预测与启示
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Prediction of the Change,Supply and Demand of Medium and Long-term Labor Forces in Chongqing and Its Enlightenment
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    摘要:

    根据对第六次人口普查数据的分析计算,劳动力资源比重低、劳动参与率10年来持续下降以及劳动力人口年龄偏大、文化素质较低是重庆劳动力资源的现状;预测分析表明,劳动力规模下降趋势难以逆转,劳动力供求关系将从供过于求逐渐走向结构性供不应求是未来重庆劳动力供需发展的基本趋势。因此,应及时调整农村劳动力转移政策,加快产业升级、结构调整的步伐,加快农业现代化进程,建立统筹城乡的多层次、多形式的教育体系,并适时、适度调整人口政策。同时,目前影响我国区域人口规模的因素中总和生育率的影响越来越小,而迁移流动的影响越来越大,因此各地区应制定有吸引力的人口迁移政策,以在未来的劳动力资源争夺中占据优势地位。

    Abstract:

    The analysis and calculation based on the sixth census data show that the ratio of labor forces is lower, that working participation rate is declining in recent ten years,that the status quo of Chongqing’s labor resources is that the age of working labor forces is older and that cultural quality is lower. The prediction analysis reveals that it is difficult to change the trends of the decline of labor scale,that the relationship between supply and demand of labor forces will change from supply over demand to supply less than demand,thus,Chongqing should in time adjust rural labor transfer policy,accelerate industrial upgrading and adjustment,accelerate the progress of agricultural modernization,establish multi-level and multi-form overall education system in urban and rural areas,and adjust population policy timely,meanwhile,in the factors affecting China’s regional population scale,the influence of total birthrate becomes smaller and smaller,but the influence of migration and floating becomes bigger and bigger,thus,each region should make attractive population policy so that advanced position can be taken in the struggle for labor forces in the future.

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钟瑶奇,米清奎.重庆中长期劳动力变动及供需预测与启示[J].西部论坛,2013,23(5):48-60

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