美国场外衍生品市场影响因素分析与启示
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Analysis of the Factors Affecting OTC DerivativesMarket in the United States and Its Enlightenment
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    摘要:

    利用美国1998—2011年季度数据,运用多元回归模型研究基础资产、场内衍生品、经济增长、货币政策、政府监管等因素对场外衍生品市场的影响,结果表明:在美国,利用场外衍生品对冲风险的动机明显,场外衍生品与场内衍生品的互补效应比替代效应更强,衍生品市场的发展脱离实体经济,货币供应量对场外衍生品交易存在负效应,而政府加强监管会产生正效应。因此,在我国,衍生品市场必须服务于实体经济,优先发展场内衍生品市场,加强对场外衍生品市场的监管,并推进衍生品市场参与者的内控建设。

    Abstract:

    This paper studies the effect of the factors such as underlying assets, exchange-traded derivatives, economic growth, monetary policy and government governance and so forth on the OTC derivatives market by using quarterly data of the United States during 1998—2011 based on multiple regression models and the results show that, in the United States, there are a strong motive of using OTC derivatives to hedge the risk, that the complementary effect of both the OTC derivatives and exchange traded derivatives is stronger than their replaceable effect, that the development of the derivative market breaks away from the substantial economy and monetary supply amount has negative effect on OTC derivatives transaction while government governance consolidation can have positive effect. Thus, in China, the derivative market must serve the substantial economy, the exchange traded derivative market should be given priority to, the supervision on OTC derivative market should be enhanced, and the internal control construction for the participants in derivative market should be pushed forward.

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斯 文.美国场外衍生品市场影响因素分析与启示[J].西部论坛,2012,22(6):67-77

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