Abstract:In this paper, we have conducted an empirical study from a more systematic and comprehensive perspective to analyze the relationship between international commodity prices and China’s economic cycle through the turning point analysis, correlation coefficient analysis and time series analysis(MSVAR model)and according to monthly data during January, 2000November, 2011. The results show that international commodity price is strongly positively related to China’s economic cycle, furthermore, there is state-switching characteristic between international commodity price and China’s industrial value-added as well as CPI, that the change of international commodity price is in ahead of the year on year growth of China’s industrial value-added but lags behind the year on year growth of China’s CPI, the volatility feature of the three is quite similar, the length of average period is quite contiguous and there exists Granger causality among the three, that the expansion or contraction of China’s economic cycle is an important reason for the price volatility of international commodity, and vice versa, the price volatility of international commodity can intensify the expansion or contraction of China’s economic cycle. China should actively cultivate new import-export market, establish international reserve system, information system and early warning mechanism for international commodity to disperse and prevent international commodity price risk.