国际大宗商品价格与我国经济周期关联性研究
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Study on the Correlation between International Commodity Prices and China’s Economic Cycle
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    摘要:

    根据2000年1月—2011年11月的月度数据,采用转折点分析、相关系数分析和时间序列分析(MS-VAR模型)研究国际大宗商品价格与我国经济周期的关联性,结果表明:国际大宗商品价格与我国经济周期存在较强的正相关性,且国际大宗商品价格与我国工业增加值、CPI之间存在状态转移特征。国际大宗商品价格变动领先于我国工业增加值同比增长而滞后于我国CPI同比增长,三者的波动特征极为相似,平均周期长度也较为接近,且存在格兰杰因果关系;我国经济周期的扩张和收缩是引起国际大宗商品价格波动的一个重要原因,而国际大宗商品价格的波动则会加剧我国经济周期的扩张和收缩。我国应积极培育新兴进出口市场,建立大宗商品的国家储备制度及其信息系统和监测预警机制,以分散和防范国际大宗商品价格风险。

    Abstract:

    In this paper, we have conducted an empirical study from a more systematic and comprehensive perspective to analyze the relationship between international commodity prices and China’s economic cycle through the turning point analysis, correlation coefficient analysis and time series analysis(MSVAR model)and according to monthly data during January, 2000November, 2011. The results show that international commodity price is strongly positively related to China’s economic cycle, furthermore, there is state-switching characteristic between international commodity price and China’s industrial value-added as well as CPI, that the change of international commodity price is in ahead of the year on year growth of China’s industrial value-added but lags behind the year on year growth of China’s CPI, the volatility feature of the three is quite similar, the length of average period is quite contiguous and there exists Granger causality among the three, that the expansion or contraction of China’s economic cycle is an important reason for the price volatility of international commodity, and vice versa, the price volatility of international commodity can intensify the expansion or contraction of China’s economic cycle. China should actively cultivate new import-export market, establish international reserve system, information system and early warning mechanism for international commodity to disperse and prevent international commodity price risk.

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周菊花.国际大宗商品价格与我国经济周期关联性研究[J].西部论坛,2012,22(3):78-87

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