企业进入、产业波动与就业增长——对我国高技术产业的实证分析
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The Impact of Firm Entry and Industrial Volatility on Employment Growth—Empirical Analysis of China’s High-tech Industry
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    摘要:

    考虑可能影响地区就业增长的微观和宏观因素,利用我国2000—2009年31个省市区高技术产业的数据,通过面板PDLS模型和分位数回归模型实证分析企业进入和产业波动对就业增长的影响,研究结果表明:企业进入对就业增长的影响呈现出波浪形的变化趋势,从短期和长期来看,企业进入对就业增长有正向的促进作用,但从中期来看则表现为负向影响;产业波动对就业增长的影响呈现出先正后负的变化趋势,在短期内产业波动可以促进就业增长,长期内则会抑制就业增长。政府应降低行政性准入壁垒对企业进入的消极影响,营造公平的市场进入环境和完善的产业发展环境。

    Abstract:

    This paper makes empirical analysis of the impact of firm entry and industrial volatility on employment growth by considering possible micro and macro factors affecting regional employment, by using the data of 31 provinces and municipalities of China about high-tech industry during 20002009 and through panel PDLS model and quantile regression model, and research results show that the relation between firm entry and employment growth demonstrates a wave-shape changing trend, in short-term, firm entry has positive promoting effect on employment growth but has negative effect in middle-term, that industrial volatility has early positive effect but late negative effect on employment growth, in short-run, industrial volatility can boost employment growth but restrict employment growth in long-run, thus, governments should get rid of passive influence by lowering administrative entry barrier for enterprises and create fair market entry environment and perfected industry development environment.

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谢 理,范力丹.企业进入、产业波动与就业增长——对我国高技术产业的实证分析[J].西部论坛,2012,22(3):35-46

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