人民币实际有效汇率变动对就业的影响——基于中国制造业企业层面的分析
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The Influence of Real Effective Exchange Rate Change of Renminbi on Employment —Analysis Based on Chinese Manufacturing FirmLevel Data
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    摘要:

    汇率变动会影响到进出口产品(包括中间投入品)的价格,改变企业的出口竞争力和生产规模,进而影响企业对劳动力的需求,表现为就业创造和就业破坏两种效应。使用1998—2007年的微观企业面板数据和固定效应计量方法,并将实际有效汇率对就业的冲击分解为破坏效应和创造效应,分析人民币实际有效汇率变动对我国就业的溢出效应。结果表明,对于出口企业,实际有效汇率上升(人民币升值)的就业创造和就业破坏效应同时存在,且影响系数大致相当,其总体就业情况并没有受到实质性的影响;但人民币升值对我国制造业的整体劳动力需求会产生显著的负面冲击,加重就业压力。因此,当前人民币不宜大幅过快升值。

    Abstract:

    Exchange rate fluctuations impact prices of export and import goods (including intermediate goods), change the competitiveness and production scale of exporting companies, further affect the demand for labors of exporting enterprises and have two effects such as employment creation and employment meltdown. Based on the panel data of micro enterprises from 1998 to 2007 and the fixed effect calculation model, this paper disintegrates the challenge of real effective exchange rate for employment into employment meltdown effect and employment creation effect and analyzes its spillover effect on China’s employment by real effective exchange rate change, the results show that, with regard to exporting enterprises, real effective exchange rate rise (Renminbi Appreciation) has the effect of both employment creation and employment meltdown and its influential coefficients are almost approximate, that total employment situation is not affected, however, Renminbi appreciation has significantly negative impact on total labor demand of domestic manufacturing industry and intensifies employment pressure. Therefore, it is not appropriate for CNY to be appreciated dramatically in the current period.

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汤毛虎.人民币实际有效汇率变动对就业的影响——基于中国制造业企业层面的分析[J].西部论坛,2012,22(1):21-28

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