乡—城人口迁移对农村人口老龄化的影响——基于“年龄—迁移率”的定量分析
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The Impact of Rural-Urban Population Migration on Rural Population Aging —Quantitative Analysis from the View of AgeRate of Migration
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    摘要:

    在我国工业化和城市化快速推进中,农村青壮年人口向城市大规模迁移,其结果会对农村人口结构产生深刻影响。根据“年龄—迁移率”理论,利用2000年第五次人口普查、2005年的1%人口抽查和《中国人口和就业统计年鉴(2009)》等数据,对未来一个时期我国乡—城人口迁移对农村人口年龄结构及农村人口老龄化的影响程度进行测算,结果表明乡—城人口迁移加深了农村人口老龄化程度,这将对农村传统养老制度产生巨大的冲击,进而将会引起农村养老资源供求失衡。应加快推进农村养老制度变革,提高农村社会养老资源供给能力,以弥补农村传统家庭养老资源的流失和供给不足。

    Abstract:

    In the rapid process of China’s industrialization and urbanization, rural youth and prime large-scale migrate to cities, whose result has deep impact on the rural population structure. According to “age-rate of migration” theory, by using the data of the fifth census in 2000, one percent population spot-check in 2005 and China Population and Employment Statistics Yearbook 2009, the degree of the influence of China’s rural-urban population migration on rural population age structure and rural aging is calculated and the results show that rural-urban population migration deepens rural population aging degree, which will have huge impact on rural traditional old-age care system and which will further result in the supply-demand imbalance of rural old-age care resources. China should accelerate reform of rural old-age care system, improve the supply capacity for rural social old-age care resources to complement the runoff and deficiency of rural traditional family old-age care resources supply.

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王泽强.乡—城人口迁移对农村人口老龄化的影响——基于“年龄—迁移率”的定量分析[J].西部论坛,2011,21(6):27-33

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