| 摘要: |
| 通过完善财政制度缓解财政纵向失衡、优化转移支付是促进居民消费扩容升级的重要措施。利用2014—2023年省级面板数据构建面板联立方程模型，采取三阶段最小二乘法分析发现：财政纵向失衡增强既会直接抑制居民消费扩容升级，也能够通过“财政纵向失衡↑→转移支付↑→居民消费扩容升级↑”的传导机制促进居民消费扩容升级；从消费扩容来看，财政纵向失衡通过增加转移支付产生的间接效应小于直接效应，因而其对居民消费扩容的总效应为负；从消费升级来看，财政纵向失衡通过增加转移支付产生的间接效应大于直接效应，因而其对居民消费升级的总效应为正；财政纵向失衡和转移支付对居民消费扩容升级的影响及传导机制会因地理区位、经济发展水平、财政压力等的不同而具有多样化的异质性表现；此外，还存在“财政纵向失衡↑→民生性财政支出偏向↑→居民消费扩容升级↑”的传导机制。因此，应深化财政体制改革，完善转移支付政策，改善财政支出结构，以缓解财政纵向失衡，推动居民消费扩容升级。 |
| 关键词: 财政纵向失衡 转移支付 居民消费 消费扩容 消费升级 民生性财政支出偏向 |
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| Fiscal Vertical Imbalance, Transfer Payments and Residents’ Consumption Expansion and Upgrading |
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DONG Hao-ran, XIN Chong-chong, LIU Feng-rui1,2,3
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1. School of Economics and Management, Luoyang Institute of Science and Technology, Luoyang 471023, Henan, China;2. Editorial Department of Beijing Social Sciences, Beijing Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;3. Institute of Population Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
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| Abstract: |
| In December 2024, the Central Economic Work Conference listed “vigorously boosting consumption, improving investment efficiency, and comprehensively expanding domestic demand” as the top of the nine key tasks. The expansion of residents’ consumption scale and the upgrading of consumption level can effectively promote the optimization of economic structure, tap the potential of domestic demand, and improve people’s living standards, which is the core driving force for sustained economic growth. Vertical fiscal imbalance, as a typical problem under the decentralized system, has had a profound impact on the expansion and upgrading of residents’ consumption by changing the fiscal behavior of local governments. Most of the existing studies focus on the independent effects of fiscal vertical imbalance or transfer payments, while there is insufficient systematic analysis of the interaction and transmission mechanism between the two. Based on the provincial panel data from 2014 to 2023, this paper constructs a panel simultaneous equation model and uses the three-stage least squares method (3SLS) to empirically test the relationship and mechanism between fiscal vertical imbalance, transfer payments and the expansion and upgrading of residents’ consumption. Empirical research has found that fiscal vertical imbalance can promote the expansion and upgrading of residents’ consumption by increasing transfer payments, and this conclusion still holds true after a series of robustness tests. Specifically, the vertical fiscal imbalance can have a positive impact on the expansion and upgrading of residents’ consumption indirectly by influencing transfer payments. However, this impact cannot offset the negative direct impact of vertical fiscal imbalance on the expansion of residents’ consumption. Meanwhile, the eastern region, the southern region, developed regions, and regions with high fiscal pressure exhibit heterogeneous characteristics. Further examination reveals that fiscal vertical imbalance indirectly promotes the expansion of consumption by enhancing the inclination of fiscal expenditure based on people’s livelihood. However, the overall effect remains negative, which highlights the necessity of optimizing the structure of fiscal expenditure. Compared with previous literature, the marginal contributions of this paper are as follows: First, it constructs a theoretical framework of “vertical fiscal imbalance-transfer payments-expansion and upgrading of consumption”; Second, it empirically tests the impact effects and mechanisms from the dual dimensions of the expansion and upgrading of residents’ consumption; Thirdly, the panel simultaneous equation and the three-stage least square method are used to empirically test the above transmission mechanism, reduce measurement errors, and clarify the mechanism of “people’s livelihood expenditure bias” in influencing the role of consumption expansion; fourthly, it deconstructs the heterogeneity of the transmission mechanism from multiple dimensions to provide refined basis and theoretical support for the design of differentiated policies. This study reveals the influence mechanism of fiscal vertical imbalance and transfer payment on the expansion and upgrading of residents’ consumption, providing a theoretical basis for government departments to optimize the design of the fiscal system and scientifically formulate transfer payment policies. The research conclusion is conducive to implementing differentiated policies in response to the fiscal pressure and development level of different regions under the background of regional coordinated development. These policies, which focus on optimizing the structure of fiscal expenditure and enhancing investment in people’s livelihood, can effectively unlock the consumption potential of residents. This, in turn, provides valuable policy insights for the establishment of a “unified national market” and the realization of high-quality economic development. |
| Key words: fiscal vertical imbalance transfer payment residents’ consumption consumption expansion consumption upgrading people’s livelihood fiscal expenditure bias |
