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| 中国工业资本回报率分析：1978—2018年 |
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郭文，王海宇1,2
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1. 北京大学 国家发展研究院，北京 100871;2. 东北财经大学 产业组织与企业组织研究中心，辽宁 大连 116025
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| 摘要: |
| 中国居高不下的投资率是否合理一直备受争议，而资本回报率的高低是评价投资率是否合理的重要标准。通过扣除消费者承担的间接税改进资本回报率的宏观测算模型，并对1978—2018年31个省区市的工业资本回报率进行测算，以探究中国工业资本回报率的演变趋势及区域差异，分析结果显示：改革开放以来，中国工业资本回报率经过三个演变阶段，1978—1998年保持下降态势，1999—2011年整体呈现上升态势，2012—2018年则呈现缓慢下降态势；工业资本回报率由东向西依次递减，东部地区最高，东北地区次之，西部地区最低，且2011年以来中部地区的工业资本回报率逐渐赶超东北地区；工业资本回报率的区域差异趋于收敛，且四个地区工业资本回报率的标准差和锡尔指数逐渐下降；工业资本回报率区域差异的收敛是资本区域错配程度减弱的反映。因此，应加快推进要素市场化配置改革，提高资本配置效率，进一步提升资本回报率并缩小区域差异。 |
| 关键词: 资本回报率 资本错配 资本配置效率 投资率 间接税 |
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| Research on China’s Industrial Return on Capital：1978—2018 |
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GUO Wen, WANG Hai-yu1,2
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1. National School of Development, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;2. Industrial and Business Organization Research Center, Northeast University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025, Liaoning, China
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| Abstract: |
| In recent years, whether China’s rising investment rate is reasonable has been controversial, however, the degree of the return on capital is an important criterion to evaluate whether the investment rate is reasonable. Based on the macro-prediction model by deducting indirect tax which is undertaken by consumers to improve return on capital, this paper calculates the industrial return on capital of 31 provinces and municipalities during 1978-2018 in order to study the evolution trend and regional difference of China’s industrial return on capital. Analysis results show that since the reform and opening up, China’s industrial return on capital has roughly experienced three stages: during 1978-1998, China’s industrial return on capital maintained a downward trend; during 1999-2011, an upward trend; and during 2012-2018, a slow downward trend. At the same time, China’s industrial return on capital shows the inter-provincial and inter-regional differences, China’s industrial return on capital decreases from east to west, with the highest in the eastern region, followed by the northeast region, and the lowest in the western region, and the industrial return on capital in the central region has gradually overtaken that in the northeast region since 2011; The inter-regional difference of industrial return on capital tends to converge, which is reflected in the decline of the standard deviation of industrial return on capital in the four regions and the reduction of the Theil index. The convergence of the inter-regional difference of the industrial return on capital is the reflection of the weakening regional mismatch degree. Therefore, it is necessary to deepen the reform of factor market and raise capital allocation efficiency to further improve the industrial return on capital and narrow the inter-regional difference. |
| Key words: industrial return on capital capital mismatch capital allocation efficiency investment rate indirect tax |
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