| 摘要: |
| 人口老龄化和人力资本水平提升是人力资源发展的两大趋势。人口老龄化会减少劳动力的有效供给，进而抑制经济增长；人力资本水平提升则会提高劳动生产效率，进而促进经济增长，并可通过增加劳动力的有效供给来“对冲”人口老龄化对经济增长的抑制效应。采用2000—2017年中国31个省（自治区、直辖市）的面板数据，运用动态系统GMM模型的分析表明：人口老龄化不利于就业增长，对经济发展水平的提高具有抑制作用；而人力资本水平提升有利于就业增长，对经济发展水平的提高具有促进作用；人力资本水平的提升可以弱化人口老龄化对经济增长的抑制作用，产生“对冲效应”；从区域异质性来看，该“对冲效应”在经济发展和人力资本水平较低的地区较强，表现为中部地区最强，西部地区次之，东部地区不显著。在人口老龄化程度趋于加深的背景下，应转变经济发展方式，通过人力资本水平的持续提升来优化和提高劳动力供给结构和质量，进而弱化和抵消人口老龄化对经济增长的不利影响，实现经济高质量发展。 |
| 关键词: 人口老龄化 人力资本水平 劳动力供给 就业 劳动生产率 对冲效应 经济增长 |
| DOI： |
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| Analysis of the Hedging Effect of Population Aging and Human Capital Improvement on Economic Growth |
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MAO Yan-bing, LI Dan-hui
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School of Economics, Shanghai University , Shanghai 200444, China
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| Abstract: |
| Population aging and human capital improvement are two trends in human resources development, however, population aging can reduce the effective supply of labor force and further restrain economic growth. Human capital improvement can raise labor productivity, further boost economic growth and can “hedge” the restraining effect of population aging on economic growth by increasing effective supply of labor force. This paper adopts Dynamic System GMM model by using panel data of 31 provinces, autonomous districts and municipalities in China from 2000 to 2017 to conduct empirical analysis. The results show that population aging is not conducive to employment growth, and has a negative impact on China's economic growth, but human capital improvement is helpful to employment growth and has boosting effect on the improvement of economic development level. The improvement of human capital level can weaken the restraining effect of population aging on economic growth and produce “hedging effect”. From the perspective of regional heterogeneity, this “hedging effect” is strongest in central area, followed by west area and is weakest in east area. Under the background of the deepening of population aging tendency, we should change economic development mode, optimize and improve labor supply structure and quality by sustainable improvement of human capital level, and further weaken and offset the negative impact of population aging on economic growth so as to realize high quality development of economy. |
| Key words: population aging human capital level labor supply employment labor productivity hedging effect economic growth |
