常冉,杨来科,张皞.中国八大区域供需双循环与双重价值链分工——利用IRIOT—WIOT投入产出表的价值链分析[J].西部论坛,2021,31(1):32-47
中国八大区域供需双循环与双重价值链分工——利用IRIOT—WIOT投入产出表的价值链分析
Supply and Demand Double-circulation and Division of Dual Value Chains in China’s Eight Regions: Analysis of Value Chains Based on IRIOT-WIOT
  
DOI:
中文关键词:  双循环新发展格局  双重价值链  增加值供给  增加值需求  价值链地位
英文关键词:double-circulation new development pattern  dual value chains  value-added supply  value-added demand  value chain status
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作者单位
常冉,杨来科,张皞 华东师范大学 经济学院上海 200062 
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中文摘要:
      利用1997年、2002年、2007年、2010年和2012年中国区域间投入产出表和相应年度世界投入产出表构建IRIOT—WIOT投入产出表,测算中国八大区域的增加值供给偏好指数、增加值需求偏好指数和双重价值链地位指数,展现各区域的国内国际增加值供需双循环状态及国内全球双重价值链分工格局:8个区域增加值供给流向和需求来源的国内地区占比均高于其他地区占比,其中沿海地区的增加值供给偏好其他地区,内陆地区的增加值供给则偏好国内地区,但沿海地区与内陆地区的增加值需求偏好没有明显的异质性;各区域的增加值供给和需求流向均具有明显的“邻近性”特征;内陆各区域的增加值供给更多地(直接或间接)流向沿海地区,增加值需求也更多地来源于沿海地区;沿海各区域的增加值供给更多地流向相邻的沿海区域和中部区域,增加值需求则更多地来源于内陆地区(尤其是中部区域);内陆各区域处于国内价值链上游,沿海各区域处于国内价值链下游,但8个区域均以下游位置嵌入全球价值链;各区域的国内价值链地位指数与全球价值链地位指数正相关,且国内价值链地位指数均高于全球价值链地位指数。1997—2012年,中国沿海地区的增量生产供给主要用于满足国际市场需求,而内陆地区的增量生产供给主要用于满足沿海地区的增量生产需求,国际市场需求成为经济持续高速增长的主要驱动力;进而,“国内国际双循环的相互促进”表现为:国内价值链循环为沿海地区融入全球价值链循环提供资源和产业支撑,沿海地区融入全球价值链循环带动国内价值链循环升级。构建双循环新发展格局,“以国内大循环为主体”就是要从“利用国际市场的‘外循环’带动国内经济的‘内循环’”转变为“通过国内经济‘内循环’的提质升级促进国际市场‘外循环’的优化拓展”,以国内有效需求的扩大和需求层次的提升推动国内供给质量的提高,进而以国内供给质量的提高拓展和创造国际市场更高层次的需求,使国内需求层次和供给质量的提升成为经济增长的主要驱动力;并不断完善中国特色社会主义市场经济体制,使“国内国际双循环相互促进”转化为:以国内价值链循环的升级推动全球价值链循环的拓展,利用全球价值链循环为国内价值链循环提供更多更好的资源和更大更高层次的市场。同时,还应进一步强化中部区域在构建国内国际双循环新发展格局中的纽带作用。
英文摘要:
      IRIOT-WIOD input-output tables are constructed by using China’s interregional input-output tables in 1997, 2002, 2007, 2010 and 2012 and their corresponding global input-output tables to measure the value-added supply preference index, value-added demand preference index and dual value chain position index of China’s eight regions so as to demonstrate domestic and international value-added supply and demand double-circulation status of each region and the division pattern of domestic and international dual value chain. The domestic regional proportion of value-added supply flowing of the eight regions and demand source is higher than that of other regions, among which the value-added supply of the coastal area prefers other areas, the value-added supply of inland area prefers domestic area, however, the value-added demand preference of the coastal area and the inland area does not have obvious heterogeneity. The value-added supply and demand flowing of all regions has significant “adjacent” characteristic. More value-added supply of inland all regions (directly or indirectly)flows to the coastal area, and their more value-added demand comes from the coastal area. More value-added supply of the coastal area flows to the adjacent coastal area and central area, and their more value-added demand emanates from the inland area (particularly central area). The inland area stays at the upper reaches of domestic value chain, and the coastal area locates at lower reaches of domestic value chain, however, all eight regions embed the global value chain at the lower reaches location. The domestic value chain position index of all regions is positively correlated with the global value chain position index and the domestic value chain position index of all regions is higher than that of the global value chain. During 1997-2012, the increment production supply of China’s coastal area mainly satisfies international market demand, however, the increment production supply of the inland area chiefly satisfies the increment production demand of the coastal area, the international market demand becomes the main impetus of China’s rapid economic growth, furthermore, “domestic and international double-circulation interaction shows that the domestic value chain circulation provides resources and industrial support for the coastal area to integrate into the global value chain circulation, and the integration of the coastal area into the global value chain circulation upgrades the domestic value chain circulation. The construction of double-circulation new development pattern and “taking domestic big circulation as the main body” aim to change the situation from “using the external circulation of the international market” to drive “the internal circulation of the domestic economy to using the promotion and upgrading of “the internal circulation” of the domestic economy to boost the optimization and expansion of “the external circulation”of the international market, use the enlargement of domestic effective demand and the promotion of demand level to boost the promotion of domestic supply quality, use the promotion and expansion of the domestic supply quality to create higher level demand of the international market in order to make the promotion of domestic demand level and supply quality become the main impetus of economic growth and further make “domestic and international double-circulation interaction” be changed to use domestic value chain upgrading to boost the expansion of global value chain, and use the global value chain circulation to provide more and better resources and bigger and higher level market for the domestic value chain circulation, meanwhile, further consolidate the ligament role of the central area in the construction of domestic and international double-circulation new development pattern.
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