沈维萍,张莹.“一带一路”建设中“贸易畅通”的区域经济效应——基于GTAP模拟的比较分析[J].西部论坛,2020,30(4):110-124
“一带一路”建设中“贸易畅通”的区域经济效应——基于GTAP模拟的比较分析
Research on Regional Economic Effect of “Unimpeded Trade” in the Construction of the "Belt and Road": Comparative Analysis Based on GTAP Simulation
  
DOI:
中文关键词:  “一带一路”倡议  “一带一路”建设  “贸易畅通”  关税互惠  经贸合作
英文关键词:“the Belt and Road” Initiative  “the Belt and Road” construction  “unimpeded trade”  reciprocal tariff  economic and trade cooperation
基金项目:
作者单位
沈维萍,张莹 1.中国社会科学院大学 研究生院北京 1024882.中国社会科学院 生态文明研究所北京 100028 
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中文摘要:
      “一带一路”倡议提出后得到国际社会广泛积极响应,签署合作协议的国家已逾百个。参与国家众多、地域覆盖广泛使中国与各沿线国家和地区的经贸合作不但具有国别差异,也表现出区域特征。将137个样本参与国划分为东亚、西亚、南亚、中亚、大洋洲、拉丁美洲、中东欧、南欧、撒哈拉以南非洲地区(SSA)、非洲其他地区10个区域,采用GTAP10.0版数据和CGE模型模拟中国分别与各区域关税互惠产生的贸易经济效应,结果显示:关税互惠使中国和相应区域的进出口贸易和GDP均有明显增长,虽然南亚、SSA、非洲其他地区、拉丁美洲、西亚和中亚6个区域的贸易条件下降,但只有南亚区域的福利下降;中国与贸易往来规模较大的区域关税互惠可以得到更多收益;参与区域与中国关税互惠的绝对收益(GDP增加和福利增加)与其自身经济体量及和中国的贸易规模有关,相对收益(GDP增长)则表现出经济发展水平(人均GDP)较低的区域经济增长幅度较大的趋势。“贸易畅通”确实促进了中国与各参与区域和国家的互利共赢,且这种互利共赢趋于强化,但也存在明显的区域差异。因此,在积极推进“一带一路”经贸合作的同时,应基于区域及国别特征采取差异化策略。
英文摘要:
      Since the launch of the “Belt and Road” initiative, the international society is extensively and actively responded, and more than 100 countries have signed cooperation agreements with China. A lot of participating countries cover extensive regions and make China’s economic and trade cooperation with the countries along the “Belt and Road” have difference with different countries and express regional feature. This paper divides 137 sample participating countries into 10 regions such as East Asia, West Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, Oceania, Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, South Europe, South Sahara African region and other Africa regions, and uses GTAP 10.0 database and CGE model to simulate the trade and economic effect produced by tariff reciprocation between China and each region. The simulation results show that the reciprocal tariff makes import and export trade and GDP obvious grow in China and the corresponding regions, although the trade prerequisite of such six regions as South Asia, South Sahara Africa, other Africa regions, Latin America, West Asia and Central Asia declines, only the welfare of South Asia declines. The regional reciprocal tariff between China and the regions with big scale trade can receive more benefit, the absolute benefit (GDP growth and welfare growth) of the reciprocal tariff between China and participating regions is correlated with their economic quantity and trade scale with China, however, the relative benefit (GDP growth) demonstrates the trend of bigger economic growth extent in the regions with lower economic development level (per capita GDP). “The unimpeded trade” really boosted the interactive benefit and double win in China and the participating countries and regions, this kind of interactive benefit and double win tends to be strengthened but has significant regional difference. Therefore, China should use different strategies based on different features of the regions and the countries while actively promoting the economic and trade cooperation between China and “the Belt and Road”.
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