张原,杜金富.“一带一路”建设与中国外汇储备波动——基于外汇储备变动影响因素的实证研究[J].西部论坛,2020,30(4):93-109
“一带一路”建设与中国外汇储备波动——基于外汇储备变动影响因素的实证研究
China’s Foreign Exchange Reserves Fluctuation under “the Belt and Road” Construction: An Empirical Study on the Influencing Factors of China’s Foreign Exchange Reserves Change
  
DOI:
中文关键词:  “一带一路”建设  外汇储备  对外直接投资  对外贸易  藏汇于民  汇率波动  人民币国际化  中美经贸摩擦
英文关键词:“the Belt and Road” construction  foreign exchange reserves  outward foreign direct investment  foreign trade  let private agency hold more foreign exchange  exchange rate fluctuation  RMB internationalization  China-US economic and trade friction
基金项目:
作者单位
张原,杜金富 北京语言大学 商学院北京 100083 
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中文摘要:
      外汇储备的变动受对外投资和贸易、外汇制度、汇率波动以及资本外流等多种因素的影响。基于2005—2018年宏观数据的分析和预测表明:中国对外投资和贸易对外汇储备的影响存在地区分化,对“一带一路”地区投资和净出口会减少外汇储备,而对非“一带一路”地区投资对外汇储备没有显著影响,对非“一带一路”地区净出口则会增加外汇储备;“藏汇于民”会减少外汇储备;人民币汇率波动影响外汇储备的方向在短期和中长期可能不一致,人民币兑美元贬值短期内会减少外汇储备,但长期会增加外汇储备;上述因素中,“藏汇于民”的作用最大,对外贸易的作用强于对外投资,对“一带一路”地区投资贸易的作用远大于对非“一带一路”地区投资贸易;未来几年中国外汇储备还将呈现下降趋势。总体来看,“一带一路”建设对近期中国外汇储备下降产生了一定的影响,其影响程度(尤其是投资)并非像一些研究估计和预测的那样巨大,但也可能对中国外汇储备带来持续性消耗压力。因此,对中国外汇储备变动趋势的判断需要特别关注“一带一路”建设、中美经贸摩擦以及人民币汇率走势等因素的影响,进而估测和优化外汇储备总量和结构;要强化外汇分类管理,科学评价“一带一路”建设的外汇使用绩效,并积极推进人民币国际化以减少对外经贸活动对外汇储备的消耗。
英文摘要:
      The change of foreign exchange reserves is affected by many factors such as foreign investment and trade, foreign exchange system, foreign exchange rate fluctuation and capital outflow and so on. The analysis and prediction based on the macro-data during 2005—2018 show that the influence of China’s foreign investment and trade has regional difference, the investment and net export to “the Belt and Road” regions can reduce foreign exchange reserves, however, the investment in non-“the Belt and Road” regions has no significant influence on China’s foreign exchange reserves, the net-export to non-“the Belt and Road” regions can increase foreign exchange reserves. “Letting private agency hold more foreign exchange" can decrease foreign exchange reserves, the direction of the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate is not consistent in short-term and middle and long-term, the depreciation of RMB to US dollars will reduce foreign exchange reserves in short-term but will increase foreign exchange reserves in long-term. In above factors, the role to “let private agency hold more foreign exchange" is the biggest, the role of foreign trade is stronger than foreign investment, and the role of investment trade for “the Belt and Road” regions is far bigger than that of non-“the Belt and Road” regions. In several years, China’s foreign exchange reserves will tend to decline. As a whole, “the Belt and Road” construction has certain impact on the recently declining of China’s foreign exchange reserves, the influencing degree is not so big as some researches estimate and predict, but it will probably bring continuously consuming pressure on China’s foreign exchange reserves. Therefore, the judgment on the trend of China’s foreign exchange reserves change needs to specifically focus on “the Belt and Road” construction, China-US economic and trade friction, RMB exchange rate and so on and further to estimate and optimize the quantity and structure of foreign exchange reserves. China should strengthen classified management on foreign exchange, scientifically review the using performance of foreign exchange for “the Belt and Road” construction, and actively boost RMB internalization to reduce the consumption of foreign exchange in foreign economic and trade activities.
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