李晟婷,周晓唯,李娟伟.供给侧与需求侧产业政策效应的异质性与协同性——基于中国环保产业的系统动力学仿真分析[J].西部论坛,2020,30(4):24-36
供给侧与需求侧产业政策效应的异质性与协同性——基于中国环保产业的系统动力学仿真分析
Heterogeneity and Synergy of Industrial Policy Effect at Supply Side and Demand Side: Simulation Analysis of Systematic Dynamics Based on China’s Environmental Protection Industry
  
DOI:
中文关键词:  供给侧产业政策  需求侧产业政策  环保产业  环境规制  税收优惠政策  金融扶持政策  政策协同效应
英文关键词:industrial policy at supply side  industrial policy at demand side  environmental protection industry  environmental regulation  tax preference policy  financial support policy  policy synergy effec
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作者单位
李晟婷,周晓唯,李娟伟 陕西师范大学 国际商学院陕西 西安 710119 
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中文摘要:
      产业政策可以从供给侧影响企业的投资和产品生产,也可以从需求侧影响消费者的需求和购买行为,两者都能促进或抑制产业的形成和发展,并对市场结构产生影响。供给侧产业政策和需求侧产业政策对产业发展的影响,一方面由于作用路径和方式不同而具有异质性,另一方面由于是同向的(都是促进或抑制)而具有协同性,且对于不同的产业这种异质性和协同性可能存在差异。基于环保产业的政策敏感性,以税收优惠和金融扶持作为供给侧产业政策因子,以环境规制作为需求侧产业政策因子,采用2007—2017年中国环保产业的相关数据进行系统动力学模拟,结果表明:税收优惠和金融扶持由于是直接影响企业的投资生产行为而可以在短期内快速提升环保产业的产出增长和市场集中度,但政策强度效应递减趋势明显(政策耐受效应);环境规制由于是通过增加需求促进产业发展而需要在一段时间后才能产生明显的产出增长促进效应,但规制强度的加大不会带来政策效应的减弱;同时实施税收优惠、金融扶持和环境规制具有比仅实施单项政策更优的政策效应,对产出增长的促进更大,并能中和产出对供给侧产业政策的耐受效应,熨平税收优惠带来的市场集中度较大波动。因此,在推进供给侧结构性改革中,不能忽视对需求侧政策的使用和优化,应充分利用供给侧和需求侧产业政策的异质性和协同性对产业发展进行全方位的调控,并注意各项政策的适度性与匹配性,以寻求和实现最优政策组合。
英文摘要:
      Industrial policy can affect the investment and product production of enterprises from the supply side, and can also affect the demand and purchase behavior of the consumers from demand side, both of which can boost or inhibit the formation and development of the industries and have the effect on the market. The influence of industrial policy at the supply side and at the demand side on industrial development has heterogeneity because the action path and method are different from one aspect, and has synergy because both of them are in the same direction (inhibition or promotion) from another aspect, and the heterogeneity and synergy have difference for different industries. Based on policy sensitivity of environmental protection industry, by taking tax preference and financial support as policy factor at supply side, by taking environmental regulation as policy factor at demand side, the related data of China’s environmental protection industry during 2007-2017 is used for systematic dynamics simulation, and the results show that tax preference and financial support, which directly affect the investment and production behavior of the enterprises, can quickly promote the output of environmental protection industry and promote market agglomeration but the descending trend of policy effect is obvious (policy durable effect). Environmental regulation boosts industrial development by increasing demand, can produce significantly boosting effect on output growth after a period of time, but regulation intensity enlargement can not weaken the policy effect. The implementation of tax preference, financial support and environmental regulation at the same time has better policy effect than that of single policy, has bigger boosting effect on output growth and can mitigate the durable effect of industrial policy at supply side and mitigate the bigger volatility of market agglomeration produced by tax preference. Thus, in the process of the structure reform at supply side, the usage and optimization of the policy at demand side should not be ignored. The heterogeneity and synergy of industrial policy at supply side and at the demand side should be sufficiently used to overall control the industrial development, and optimal policy combination should be searched and realized by taking care of the moderation and matching of each policy.
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