郭将,许泽庆.不同房产税政策对地区消费的异质性影响研究——基于沪、渝房产税试点的机制探讨与经验证据[J].西部论坛,2019,29(6):25-34
不同房产税政策对地区消费的异质性影响研究——基于沪、渝房产税试点的机制探讨与经验证据
Research on Heterogeneous Influence of Different Real Estate Tax Policies on Regional Consumption: Mechanism Discussion and Empirical Evidence Based on Real Estate Tax Experiment in Shanghai and Chongqing
  
DOI:
中文关键词:  房产税  房价  消费升级  居民消费水平  财富效应  抵押效应  收入效应
英文关键词:real estate tax  housing price  consumption upgrading  resident consumption level  wealth effect  mortgage effect  income effect
基金项目:
作者单位
郭将,许泽庆 上海理工大学 管理学院上海 200093 
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中文摘要:
      房产税的推行不仅应是引导房地产市场健康发展的良药,更应是激发地区消费升级、促进地区经济高质量发展的催化剂。以2011年上海和重庆房产税改革试点为自然实验,使用合成控制法分别评估两地房产税政策对地区居民消费水平的影响,研究表明:征收房产税会对地区居民消费水平产生显著影响,且不同的房产税政策会产生不同的影响;“重庆模式”具有较强的政策力度和公平性,但对地区消费具有持续的抑制作用,不利于地区消费升级;“上海模式”在短期内抑制了居民消费,但长期来看促进了居民消费增长。征收房产税的经济效果不仅与房产税政策本身有关,还与配套政策、制度环境等紧密相关,房产税改革不应仅着眼于房地产市场,还应关照地区消费的升级和经济的高质量发展,既要有相应的配套制度,也应配合其他方面的改革。
英文摘要:
      Property tax policy should not only guide the healthy development of the real estate market, but also should be a catalyst to stimulate the regional consumption upgrading and to boost the high-quality development of regional economy. Taking the 2011 real estate tax reform pilot in Chongqing and Shanghai as a natural experiment, the synthetic control method was used to evaluate the impact of real estate tax policy on local residents' consumption. The research shows that the impact of real estate tax on local residents' consumption is obviously different due to the different implementation rules of policies. The "Chongqing model" has stronger policy effect and fairness but has continuous inhibitory effect on regional consumption and is not conducive to consumption upgrading. The "Shanghai model" restrains the consumption of residents at the initial stage of the policy, but finally the inhibition effect disappears and the consumption rises. The effect of property tax policy is not only related to real estate tax policy itself, but also is closely related to related policies and institutional environment. According to the research, the formulation of real estate tax policy should not only focus on the real estate market, but should consider the development of other economic fields in the region. Property tax reform should not only have related matched institutions but also should fit for the reform of other fields.
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