陈治国,杜金华,李成友.我国土地财政的产业抑制效应及其政策启示——基于35个重要城市面板数据的实证研究[J].西部论坛,2019,29(3):91-103
我国土地财政的产业抑制效应及其政策启示——基于35个重要城市面板数据的实证研究
Industrial Depression Effect of Land Finance and Its Policy Enlightenment:Empirical Study Based on Panel Data of 35 Important Cities in China
  
DOI:
中文关键词:  土地财政  产业发展  抑制效应
英文关键词:land finance  industrial development  depression effect
基金项目:
作者单位
陈治国,杜金华,李成友 1.咸阳师范学院 经济与管理学院陕西 咸阳 7120002.厦门大学 经济学院福建 厦门 3610053.山东财经大学 金融学院山东 济南 250014 
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中文摘要:
      基于全国35个重要城市2003—2015年面板数据,将农业增加值、工业增加值及不含房地产业的服务业增加值作为被解释变量,将土地财政依赖度作为解释变量,构建跨城市面板模型,以探究土地财政的产业抑制效应,并对实证估计结果进行稳健性、内生性与地区异质性检验。研究结果发现:(1)土地财政依赖度对农业增加值、工业增加值、不含房地产业的服务业增加值均有显著的负向影响效应,且该估计结果通过了稳健性检验,表明土地财政有显著的产业抑制效应。(2)运用工具变量法对实证结果进行内生性检验发现,土地财政的产业抑制效应仍然显著存在,且克服内生性因素后,抑制效应均得到了明显加强;考察地区异质性表现时发现,土地财政的产业抑制效应存在地区异质性,主要表现在西部地区只在服务业方面存在显著的抑制效应,而在农业和工业方面却存在显著的促进效应。(3)从控制变量来看,无论是稳健性检验、内生性检验还是地区异质性检验,工资水平、物流发展水平均对产业发展有积极的促进效应;政府规模在西部地区对农业和工业有正向影响效应,但过大的政府规模不利于三大产业的快速发展。
英文摘要:
      Based on the panel data of 35 important cities in China from 2003 to 2015, taking agricultural added value, industrial added value and service industry added value excluding real estate as the explained variables, and taking the degree of land financial dependence as the explanatory variable, this paper constructs a panel model across cities to effectively explore the industrial depression effect of land finance, and tests the stability, endogeneity and regional heterogeneity of empirical results. The empirical study finds that:(1)The degree of land finance dependence has a significant negative effect on the agricultural added value, industrial added value and service industry added value excluding real estate, and the estimation result has passed the robustness test, which shows that land finance has significant industrial depression effect.(2)Using the instrumental variable estimation method to test endogeneity, it is found that the industrial depression effect of land finance still exists significantly, and after the endogenous factors are overcome, the industrial depression effects are all obviously strengthened. In the investigation of regional heterogeneity, it is found that there is regional heterogeneity in the industrial depression effects, and the regional heterogeneity mainly shows that the western region has the obvious depression effect only in the service industry, and there is the significant promotion effect in agriculture and industry.(3)When analyzing the control variables, whether it is robustness, endogenous or regional heterogeneity test, the wage level and the logistic development level have positive effect on the industrial development. the positive effect of government size on agriculture and industry in the western region exists, it is estimated that excessive government size is not conducive to the rapid development of the three major industries.
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