陈利锋,钟玉婷.人口老龄化对积极财政政策有效性的影响——兼析延迟退休的宏观经济效应[J].西部论坛,2019,29(3):36-47
人口老龄化对积极财政政策有效性的影响——兼析延迟退休的宏观经济效应
Influence of Aging on the Effectiveness of Positive Fiscal Policy: Analysis of Macro-economic Effect of Extended Retirement Age
  
DOI:
中文关键词:  人口老龄化  积极的财政政策  延迟退休  社会福利损失  动态宏观经济效应
英文关键词:aging  positive fiscal policy  extending the retirement age  social welfare loss  dynamic macro-economic effect
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作者单位
陈利锋,钟玉婷 中共广东省委党校 经济学教研部广东 广州 510053 
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中文摘要:
      人口老龄化不但影响到宏观经济的稳定,也会对财政政策的有效性产生影响。将人口老龄化引入动态随机一般均衡模型,分析人口老龄化对4种积极财政政策工具(扩大政府支出、提高劳动所得税起征点、提高劳动所得税累进性和增加公共投资)有效性产生的影响以及延迟退休的动态宏观经济效应,结果表明:人口老龄化扩大了政府支出和政府公共投资对消费产生的挤出效应,降低了4种积极财政政策工具对产出、消费、就业的促进效应,也强化了其对通胀和工资膨胀的提升效应;延迟退休未对私人消费产生挤出效应,有利于就业、产出和消费增长,并有助于稳定通胀和工资膨胀;与财政政策工具相比延迟退休引致的整体社会福利损失较小。人口老龄化降低了积极财政政策的有效性,基于稳定宏观经济和降低社会福利损失的考虑,延迟退休是一个较优的政策选择。
英文摘要:
      Population aging not only affects the stability of macro-economy, but also affects the effectiveness of fiscal policy. In this paper,we consider a new Keynesian DSGE model with heterogeneous agent as workers and retirees, and investigate how the aging affects the effectiveness of government spending shocks, labor income tax threshold adjustment shocks, labor income tax progressiveness adjustment shocks and government public investment shocks. The result shows that aging expanded the squeezing effect of governmental expenditure and public investment on consumption, decreased the boosting effects of four kinds of positive fiscal policies on output, consumption and employment, and strengthened the raising effect on inflation and wage expansion. The extended retirement age does not produce squeezing effect on private consumption but is conducive to employment, output and consumption growth and is helpful to stabilizing inflation and wage growth, compared with fiscal policy tool, the total social welfare loss resulting from extended retirement age is smaller. The aging decreased the effectiveness of positive fiscal policy, then, for the purpose of stabilizing macroeconomics and decreasing social welfare loss, the policy for extending the retirement age is meaningful.
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