陈星星,何德旭.能效提升不同情境下中国能源效率的经济反弹效应研究[J].西部论坛,2019,29(2):99-112
能效提升不同情境下中国能源效率的经济反弹效应研究
Measurement of the Rebound Effect of China's Energy Efficiency under Different Situations in Efficiency Promotion
  
DOI:
中文关键词:  能源效率  反弹效应  可计算一般均衡  宏观SAM表
英文关键词:energy efficiency  rebound effect  computable general equilibrium  macro SAM table
基金项目:
作者单位
陈星星,何德旭 1.特华博士后科研工作站北京 1000292.中国社会科学院 a.数量经济与技术经济研究所北京 100732
b.财经战略研究院
北京 100028 
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中文摘要:
      本文编制了包含能源部门的宏观SAM表,构建了四层生产函数的中国能源效率反弹效应的可计算一般均衡模型,并将模型系统分为生产模块、收入支出模块、国际贸易模块、投资模块和闭合法则、市场均衡与福利模块五个模块。通过模型模拟,得出模型参数校调结果,测算了能源消耗产出反弹效应对经济系统的影响和不同情境下能源消耗产出反弹效应。研究表明,当煤炭、石油和天然气、电力的能源效率提高5%时,各部门石油和天然气需求量也均增加,煤炭效率提高会降低农业、建筑业和服务业的电力需求量,而煤炭、石油和天然气、电力的需求量均有所上升。三种能源效率分别提高5%时,总量经济指标均有所提高。能源效率提升不同程度时,反弹效应存在显著差异。当能源效率从1%提升至15%时,煤炭、石油天然气、电力需求量均呈现先下降再上升的“V”形趋势。在同等能源效率提升幅度下,能源密集型产业的能源效率的反弹效应更为显著。政府部门在制定能源政策,提高能源效率时,不应当一味追求能效的提升,而应当寻求最适宜的能效提升幅度,使部门产出和经济总效益最大化。
英文摘要:
      This paper compiles a macro SAM table which contains the energy sector and constructs a four-layer production function of computable general equilibrium model to calculate rebound effect of China's energy efficiency. This article divides the model system into five parts: production, income expenditure, international trade, investment and closure rule, market equilibrium and welfare. Through model simulation, the calibration of parameters is obtained, and rebound effect on the economic system and the rebound effect on energy efficiency under different situations are calculated. Results show that when the energy efficiency of coal, oil, natural gas and electricity is increased by 5%, the demands for oil and natural gas are increased, and the increase of coal efficiency will reduce the demand for electricity in agriculture, construction and service industries, while the demands for coal, oil, natural gas and electricity are increasing. When the three energy efficiencies increase by 5%, the total economic indicators increase. There are significant differences in rebound effect when energy efficiencies are different. When the efficiency of energy consumption is increased from 1% to 15%, the demands for coal, oil, natural gas and electricity decrease at first and then increase, and show a "V" trend. The rebound effect of energy consumption output efficiency of energy intensive industries is more significant at the same energy consumption output efficiency. Government departments should not blindly pursue energy efficiency improvement while formulating energy policy and improving energy efficiency, but should seek the most suitable energy efficiency promotion range, so as to make the department output and the total benefit of the economy maximized.
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