西爱琴,马萌蔚.中国进口贸易关系的生存率及持续时间研究——基于整体、产品和来源国层面的长期动态考察[J].西部论坛,2019,29(2):83-90
中国进口贸易关系的生存率及持续时间研究——基于整体、产品和来源国层面的长期动态考察
Study on Survival Rate and Duration of Chinese Import Trade:Long-term Dynamic Examination Based on Holistic, Product and Source Countries Level
  
DOI:
中文关键词:  进口贸易关系  生存状态  生存率  持续时间  进口产品特征  进口来源国  进口依赖
英文关键词:import trade relation  survival status  survival rate  duration  import product feature  import source country  import dependence
基金项目:
作者单位
西爱琴,马萌蔚 青岛理工大学 商学院山东 青岛 266520 
摘要点击次数: 307
全文下载次数: 198
中文摘要:
      采用UN Comtrade数据库1992—2016年中国进口贸易数据,运用生存分析方法分别从整体、进口产品特征(技术复杂度和要素禀赋)、进口来源国特征(收入水平和地域分布)层面考察中国进口贸易关系的生存状态,结果表明:中国进口贸易关系持续时间普遍较短且多段化特征明显,生存率与持续时间负相关且存在“门槛效应”;中低技术、中等技术和高技术产品进口贸易关系的生存率较高、持续时间较长,劳动和技术密集型产品进口贸易关系的数量、持续时间及生存率均明显高于资源密集型产品;进口贸易关系的数量、持续时间及生存率均与进口来源国的收入水平正相关,从地理位置优越、经济发展水平高的国家和地区进口的贸易关系较稳定、持续时间较长;稳定的宏观环境和健全的贸易机制有利于进口贸易关系向好,中国应对贸易风险和调控经济的能力日益增强。应进一步优化中国进口贸易关系的地域分布和产品结构,减小对高技术产品及部分国家的进口依赖程度。
英文摘要:
      Based on the import trade data of China from 1992 to 2016 in UN Comtrade database,this paper examines the survival status of Chinese import trade relationship from the level of holistic, import product feature (technical complexity and factor endowment) and import source countries feature (income level and regional distribution) respectively through survival analysis method. Results show that the duration of Chinese import trade relationship was generally short, with obviously dynamic changes, and that the survival rate was negatively correlated with the trade duration and had "threshold effect ". The survival rate of import trade relationship with low-tech products, medium-tech products and hi-tech products is higher and has longer duration while the quantity, duration and survival rate of the import trade relationship with labor-intensive products and tech-intensive products are significantly higher than that of resources-intensive products, and all of the quantity, duration and survival rate of the import trade relationship is positively correlated with the income level of import source countries. The import trade relationship of the countries and regions with predominant geographic location and higher economic development level is stable and has longer duration, and stable environment and perfected trade mechanism are conducive to good trade relationship. China’s ability to control trade risk and economy is intensifying. China should further optimize regional distribution and product structure of Chinese import trade relationship and decrease the import dependence degree on hi-tech products and some countries.
查看全文  查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器
关闭
《西部论坛》编辑部 版权所有
地址:中国 重庆市 南岸区学府大道19号,重庆工商大学学术期刊社 邮编:400067
电话:023-62769479 传真:
您是第1289332位访客
关注微信二维码