冯正强,刘婷.人口年龄结构对出口产品结构的影响——基于三期迭代模型的理论分析及经验证据[J].西部论坛,2019,29(1):98-106
人口年龄结构对出口产品结构的影响——基于三期迭代模型的理论分析及经验证据
The Influence of Population Age Structure on Export Product Structure:Based on Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Evidence of Three-period Iterative Model
  
DOI:
中文关键词:  人口年龄结构  出口产品结构  比较优势  老龄化  少子化  老年抚养比  少儿抚养比  三期迭代模型
英文关键词:population age structure  export commodity structure  comparative advantage  aging  fewer children  elderly dependency ratio  children dependency ratio  three-stage iterative model
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作者单位
冯正强,刘婷 中南大学 商学院长沙 410083 
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中文摘要:
      要素禀赋的比较优势不但取决于要素总量,还受要素结构的影响,因而要素结构的变化会对出口结构产生影响。三期迭代模型分析表明,人口年龄结构不仅会影响劳动力供给总量,还会通过居民的消费(储蓄)行为变化对生产结构和资本存量产生影响,进而对出口产品结构产生影响,具体表现为老龄化和少子化程度的提高会促使出口比较优势和出口产品结构向资本密集型产品偏移。对2003—2015年140个国家和地区的实证分析表明:老年抚养比与资本密集型产品出口占比正相关,少儿抚养比与资本密集型产品出口占比负相关;随着老龄化和少子化程度以及收入水平的提高,老年抚养比和少儿抚养比对出口产品结构的边际影响逐渐减小。中国应适应人口年龄结构的变化趋势,转变贸易发展方式,实现贸易结构的转型升级。
英文摘要:
      The comparative advantage of factor endowment not only depends on factor gross but also is affected by factor structure, as a result, the change of factor structure produces the influence on export structure. The analysis based on the three-stage iterative model shows that population age structure not only affects labor supply gross but also influences production structure and capital stock through the change of inhabitants’ consumption (savings) behavior, furthermore, affects export product structure. Specific expression is that the increase of aging and fewer children can boost the change of export comparative advantage and export product structure towards capital-intensive products. The empirical analysis based on 140 countries and regions during 2003—2015 shows that there is positive correlation between elderly dependency ratio and capital-intensive product export, that there is negative correlation between children dependency ratio and capital-intensive product export, and that with the increase of aging and fewer children, the marginal influence of elderly dependency ratio and children dependency ratio on export product structure gradually becomes smaller. China should conform with the change trend of population age structure, change trade development ways and realize the transformation and upgrading of trade structure.
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