| 摘要: |
| 党的十九大报告指出：“要坚决打好防范化解重大风险攻坚战，其关键又是防范金融风险，包括防范中国系统性金融风险的发生和抵御国际性金融危机传导所带来的外部冲击。”2007年由美国次贷危机演变成的全球性金融危机，至今还在持续影响着部分国家的经济和金融发展。2015年底开始的美国第六轮加息周期和2018年3月中美贸易战的爆发，使得中国的经济发展面临更大的机遇和挑战。本文以次贷危机为背景，基于MIMIC模型对2005—2016年的美国金融危机压力进行了测度，找到压力的来源为外汇储备增长率、出口增长率和实际有效汇率高估三个方面，进而分析其产生的根本原因，最后从三方面提出中国防范化解重大风险的对策和启示。 |
| 关键词: 次贷危机 金融危机压力 MIMIC模型 防范化解重大风险 |
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| The Source of Pressure Incurred by U.S. Financial Crisis and Its Enlightenment on China—Based on the Examination of the Sub-prime Crisis by Using MIMIC Model |
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XIONG Pu-gang, MA Li-ping, SHANG Hua1,2
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1.School of Statistics, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China;2. School of Science, North China Institute of Science and Technology, Hebei Langfang 065201, China
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| Abstract: |
| In the 19th CPC National Congress convened in 2017, Chairman Xi Jinping pointed out again that “we must fight hard in the battle of preventing and addressing the major risks in which the key is to prevent financial risk, including preventing systematic financial crisis from happening and guarding against external impact incurred by international financial crisis contagion.” The economy and financial system in some countries are still haunted by the international financial crisis which was derived from the 2007 U.S. sub-prime crisis. Moreover, the sixth round of U.S. interest hike cycle starting from the end of 2015 and the outbreak of the China-U.S. trade war in March,2018 brought about greater pressure and opportunity to Chinese economy. This paper, by dwelling on the backdrop of sub-prime crisis, employed MIMIC model to measure the pressure incurred by American financial crisis from 2005-2016, and identified three sources of pressure, namely, growth rate of foreign exchange reserves, export growth rate and overvaluation of real effective exchange rate. The paper then analyzed the fundamental cause and offered countermeasures and lessons on how China should prevent and address the major risks. |
| Key words: sub-prime crisis pressure incurred by financial crisis MIMIC model prevention from and solution to major risk |
