| 摘要: |
| 征用风险和汇率波动是影响一国外商直接投资水平的重要因素，而其影响效果会因国家和时间的不同而不同。采用“一带一路”沿线61个样本国1984—2016年的面板数据，对征用风险和汇率波动对FDI的影响进行实证检验，结果发现：总体而言，一国征用风险和汇率波动的上升确实会导致其FDI的下降，且用不同的方法以及不同的征用风险衡量指标的估计结果基本一致；产权保护质量的提高有助于高收入国家FDI的增加，但对低收入国家没有显著影响；无论是高收入国家还是低收入国家，汇率波动都对FDI 具有负向影响。“一带一路”沿线各国应不断提高产权保护质量，并积极签署双（多）边贸易投资合作协定，以有效降低征用风险；企业在境外投资过程中应充分认识并积极应对汇率风险。 |
| 关键词: 征用风险 汇率波动 汇率风险 “一带一路” 沿线国家 外商直接投资 产权保护 制度质量 投资环境 |
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| The Effect of Expropriation Risk and Exchange Rate Volatility on FDI—Evidence from Countries along the Belt and Road |
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ZHAO Wen-xia
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Urban Economy Institute, Tianjin Academy of Social Sciences, Tianjin 300191, China
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| Abstract: |
| Expropriation risk and exchange rate volatility are an important factor affecting FDI level of a country, the effect is different from different countries and time. This paper systematically studies the impact of expropriation and exchange rate risk on FDI by using 61 countries along the Belt and Road panel data from 1984 to 2016. The results show that, in general, the rise of expropriation risk and exchange rate volatility of a country surely causes the decline of its FDI, that the estimated results by using different methods and different expropriation risk measurement indexes are consistent, the raising of property right protection quality is helpful for FDI increase of high income countries but has insignificant effect on lower income countries. No matter low income countries or high income countries, exchange rate volatility has negative impact on their FDI. All countries along the Belt and Road should continuously raise property right protection quality, and actively sign double (multiple) sides trade cooperation agreement so as to effectively decrease expropriation risk. In the process of investment at abroad, the enterprises should recognize and actively respond to exchange rate volatility. |
| Key words: expropriation risk exchange rate volatility exchange rate risk the Belt and Road countries along the road FDI property right protection system quality investment environment |
