| 摘要: |
| “一带一路”建设促进了中国对沿线国家的贸易发展。采用2001—2015年中国对“21世纪海上丝绸之路”沿线33个国家出口前十类商品的出口数据，运用CMS模型进行分航段（东南亚航段、南亚及波斯湾航段、红海湾及印度洋西岸航段）和分阶段（国际金融危机前后）的出口增长来源分解，分析表明：在出口规模不断扩大过程中，出口结构发生较大变化；产品竞争力效应占主导地位但贡献度出现下降，市场需求效应的促进作用较弱但有增强趋势，而商品结构效应阻碍出口但作用微弱。中国出口商品结构与进口国需求结构存在供需错位，一定程度抑制了出口增长。应在培育主要出口产品综合竞争优势的同时，积极适应市场需求变化，优化出口商品结构；并大力推进“一带一路”建设，促进沿线国家经济发展，提升贸易便利化水平。 |
| 关键词: 一带一路 21世纪海上丝绸之路 海上新丝路 出口增长 市场需求效应 商品结构效应 产品竞争力效应 出口商品结构 |
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| Analysis of the Sources for China’s Export Growth to the Countries along the Maritime Silk Route—An Empirical Analysis of Demand Effect, Structural Effect and Competence Effect Based on CMS Model |
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WU Xu-mei, CHEN Wan-ling
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International Economy and Trade Research Center, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, Guangdong Guangzhou 510006, China
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| Abstract: |
| The construction of the Belt and Road promotes the trade development of China to the countries along the Road. This paper studies the growth factors about the top ten products which China export to 33 Countries along the Maritime Silk Route from 2001 to 2015 by using a constant market share model from the navigation section (Southeast Asia section, South Asia and the Persian Gulf section, Red Sea and Indian Ocean west bank section) and from different phases (before and after international financial crisis). The analysis shows that in the process of continuous enlargement of export scale, export structure has big change, product competence effect takes main position but its contribution degree is dropping, that the promoting effect of market demand is weak but has enhancing trend, however, commodity structure effect restricts the export but its role is weak. The goods structural effect caused by the dislocation between export supply and import demand is low and has a negative impact on export growth. China should cultivate the comprehensive competitive advantage of export products while actively fit for the change of market demand, optimize the structure of export products, boost the economic development of the countries along the Road and improve the convenient level of the trade. |
| Key words: the Belt and Road the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road Maritime Silk Route export growth market demand effect commodity structural effect product competence effect exported product structure |
