张延群.24个大中城市人均住房面积及房价相对泡沫估算[J].西部论坛,2015,25(1):60-65
24个大中城市人均住房面积及房价相对泡沫估算
Estimation on the Relative Bubble of the Housing Price and Per Capita Housing Area in 24 Big and Medium Cities of China
  
DOI:
中文关键词:  人均住房面积  房价泡沫  人均居住面积  房地产市场  房价相对泡沫指数  住房需求  城镇人口  人均可支配收入  房屋折旧率
英文关键词:per capita rehousing area  housing price bubble  per capita residential area  real estate market  relative housing price bubble index  housing demand  urban population  per capita disposable income  housing depreciation
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作者单位
张延群 中国社会科学院 数量经济与技术经济研究所北京 100732 
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中文摘要:
      国家统计局公布的“城市人均住宅建筑面积”反映的是有当地户籍并有住房的城市居民的人均住房面积,与城市人均实际住房面积的概念存在着较大的差别。对我国24个主要大中城市实际人均住房面积的估算结果明显小于统计年鉴公布的数据,而且不同城市之间存在较大的差距;利用估算结果进一步估计各城市的房价相对泡沫指数,结果表明一些城市相对于其他城市存在较高的房价泡沫。我国城市人均住房面积与发达国家相比还有明显差距,对住房的刚性需求仍然强劲,房地产业还将保持较快的增长速度;对已经出现较大房价泡沫的城市,应防止其局部风险向全局风险转化,而对于房价泡沫程度不高的城市,应支持居民的合理住房需求。
英文摘要:
      “Urban Per Capita Residential Construction Area” published by China Statistic Bureau reveals the per capita residential area of the urban residents with local household register, which is quite different from the concept of practical urban per capita rehousing area. The estimated result for practical per capita rehousing area in 24 big and medium cities is significantly smaller than the data published by the yearbooks, and furthermore, there is big difference between different cities. By using the estimated result to further estimate the relative bubble index of urban housing price in each city, the results show that there is relatively higher housing price bubble in some cities than in others, that there is obviously a gap of per capita rehousing area between China and the developed countries, that real estate industry will continue to keep rapid growth speed because the rigid demand for housing is still powerful. The local risk should be prevented from being transformed into global risk for the cities with big housing price bubble already and the reasonable housing demand of the residents should be supported for the cities without high housing price bubble.
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