| 摘要: |
| 利用1988—2007年我国投入产出表，采用投入产出模型，从进口和出口两方面分析我国对外贸易对国内就业的影响，结果表明：我国对外贸易对就业的净影响是促进作用逐步增大，说明我国对外贸易结构在向着有利于就业的方向发展；不同类型商品贸易对就业的影响存在显著差异，劳动密集型商品贸易对国内就业的净影响绝对数量最多、比重最大，而劳动—资本密集型商品贸易对就业的净影响绝对数量最少、比重最小，技术密集型商品贸易对就业的净影响增长速度最快，资源密集型商品贸易对就业的净影响增长幅度最小。国内就业受到对外贸易的冲击程度最终取决于国内产业结构的状况，应大力发展劳动—资本密集型产业，以提高劳动密集型产品的附加值；加快技术密集型产业发展，扩大拥有自主知识品牌与核心技术的技术密集型产品的出口比重；发展资本密集型产业时应注重与劳动密集型产业的配套性；同时，要减少对劳动密集型产品的进口，加大对技术密集型产品、资源密集型产品和原材料的进口。 |
| 关键词: 对外贸易结构 就业 产业结构 投入产出分析 就业促进效应 就业替代效应 劳动密集型产业 劳动—资本密集型产业，技术密集型产业 资源密集型产业 资本密集型产业 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目: |
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| Foreign Trade Structure， Industrial Structure and China’s Labor Employment |
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LIN Ni-shang
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Department of Humanities and Social Science，Tianjin Agriculture College，Tianjin 300384，China
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| Abstract: |
| This paper uses China’s input-output table during 1988-2007 and uses input-output model to analyze the influence of China’s foreign trade on domestic employment，and the results show that the influence of China’s foreign trade on employment has gradually increased boosting effect，which indicates that China’s foreign trade structure is developing in the direction of helping employment，that there is obvious difference in the influence of different commodities trade on employment，that the net influence of labor-intensive commodities trade on domestic employment has the most absolute quantity and proportion while the net influence of labor-capital intensive commodities trade on employment has the minimum absolute quantity and proportion，that the increasing rate of technology-intensive commodities trade is rapidest while the increasing rate of resources-intensive commodities trade is smallest. The affecting degree of domestic employment by foreign trade finally depends on domestic industrial structure situation，as a result，China should develop labor-capital-intensive industry，raise the value-added of labor-intensive products，accelerate the development of technology-intensive industry，increase the export rate of self-intellectual property brands and technology-intensive products with core technology，pay attention to the match between the development of capital-intensive industry and labor-intensive industry，meanwhile，reduce the import of labor-intensive products，and increase the import of technology-intensive products，resources-intensive products and raw materials. |
| Key words: foreign trade structure employment industrial structure input-output analysis employment promoting effect employment substitution effect labor-intensive industry labor-capital intensive industry technology-intensive industry resources-intensive industry c |
