周晓津.1978—2007年中国隐性失业、劳动力流动与整体失业率估计[J].西部论坛,2011,21(1):6-12
1978—2007年中国隐性失业、劳动力流动与整体失业率估计
Concealed Unemployment, Labor Migration and Total Unemployment Rate Estimate of China from 1978 to 2007
投稿时间:2010-11-09  修订日期:2010-12-14
DOI:doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-8131.2011.01.002
中文关键词:  隐性失业  整体失业率  劳动力流动  二元经济转型  剩余劳动力  劳动力就业转移  数据包络分析
英文关键词:concealed unemployment  total unemployment rate  labor flowing  dual economic transition  surplus labor  labor employment transfer  data envelopment analysis(DEA)
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周晓津  
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中文摘要:
      在由城乡二元经济向城乡一体的一元经济转型过程中,中国城乡隐性失业的剩余劳动力显性化为流动劳动力。因此,要了解和把握中国的整体失业率,其关键是弄清楚在转型期中历年城乡剩余劳动力的规模。本文从人口流动的角度考察隐性失业(剩余劳动力)显性化(流动劳动力)与中国整体失业率,并利用DEA(数据包络分析)对1978—2007年的中国整体失业率进行估计。估算结果表明:中国30年来的整体失业率为6%~10%,且失业与增长的关系与Okun定律相吻合。其中,第一条包络线是剩余劳动力的最大供给曲线,该曲线将所有流动劳动力高峰值包络在内;第二条包络线是城镇常住劳动力供给曲线,该曲线将所有流动劳动力的低谷值包络在内。
英文摘要:
      In the process of the transition from urban and rural dual economy to unified economy of urban and rural integration, the concealed unemployed surplus labors of urban and rural areas of China become migrant workers. Thus, in order to know and master the total unemployment rate of China, the key is to know the scale of urban and rural surplus labors in transitional period in these years. This paper examines the concealed unemployment (surplus labors) from the perspective of population flowing and the total unemployment of China and uses DEA (data envelopment analysis) to estimate the total unemployment rate of China from 1978 to 2007. The results show that the total unemployment rate of China in the 30 years is 6 percent to 10 percent and that the relationship between unemployment and growth is consistent with Okun Law. The first envelopment line is the maximum supply curve of surplus labors and this curve envelops the peak value of all flowing labors. The second envelopment line is supply curve of urban constant labors and this curve envelops the lower value of all flowing labors
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