人民币升值对我国出口贸易结构的影响——基于企业性质和贸易方式的VAR模型研究
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The Influence of RMB Appreciation on China’s Export Trade Structure—A VAR Model Research Based on Enterprise Property and Trade Mode
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    摘要:

    人民币升值在多个维度对我国的出口贸易产生了重要的影响。以往的文献集中于研究人民币升值对出口总量和不同商品出口结构的影响,忽视了从贸易结构分析人民币升值对私营企业出口占比和加工贸易出口占比的影响。利用2005—2008年间月度数据进行VAR模型分析,结果表明:人民币升值在短期内会减少私营企业出口占比,但在长期内却能提高私营企业出口占比;同时,在短期内人民币升值会增加加工贸易出口占比,然而在长期内却会减少加工贸易出口占比。

    Abstract:

    The appreciation of RMB had influenced China’s export significantly in a number of dimension, the previous literatures focused on the influence of total amount of exports and the export structure of different commodities but ignored analyzing the influence of RMB appreciation on private sector export proportion and processing trade export proportion from the view point of trade structure. Using monthly data between 2005 and 2008, our VAR model analysis found that RMB appreciation would reduce the private sector export proportion in the short term, but would be able to improve the private sector export proportion in the long term; and in the same time, RMB appreciation would increase the processing trade export proportion in the short term but in the long term would reduce the processing trade export proportion.

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余官胜,杨 文.人民币升值对我国出口贸易结构的影响——基于企业性质和贸易方式的VAR模型研究[J].西部论坛,2010,20(4):

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