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| 摘要: |
| 可用单一指标或综合指标衡量某地区的城镇化水平，并可用转移率预测法、速度预测法等方法对未来城镇化水平进行预测。选择城镇人口占总人口的比重这一指标，假设城镇居民与农村居民对人口自然增长的渴望有所不同，不发生城镇居民向农村居民的(逆向)转移，可运用新的递推预测法对重庆市2001—2010年城镇化进程进行更为科学、简便的预测。 |
| 关键词: 重庆 城镇化水平 转移率预测法 速度预测法 递推预测法 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F291.1 F299.27 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Prediction of Chongqing''''s urbanization process from 2001 to 2010 |
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LI Jia - hui
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| Abstract: |
| The urbanization Ievel in a certain region can be measured with single index or comprehensive index and the future urbanizarion lovel can be predicated by means of transfer efficiency prediction and speed prediction. By choosing the ratio of urban populariem to the total populatiem and supposing urban residents' desire of naturai populaticn growth is different frcm that of rural residents' and supposing that urban residents do not change into rural residents, Chongqing' s urbanization process from 2001 - 2010 can be more scientifically and simply predicated by means of new recursive prediction. |
| Key words: Chongqing,urbanizafion,recursive prediction, |
